I believe three considerations are critical to understanding many of today’s debilitating political, social and economic troubles around the world:

(1) Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, identifies physiological needs as the most important to human survival. These include the need for shelter, water, and food. American psychologist Abraham Maslow posited that a person’s motivation at the physiological level is rooted in the instinct to survive.

(2) The recent and ongoing massive street protests in Sri Lanka and Peru, which are triggered by spiralling inflation and related factors, are not limited to those two countries. Relatedly, small island developing states (SIDS) like Jamaica are especially vulnerable to global economic shocks that are being exacerbated by the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

(3) People frequently gravitate to far-right/ethno nationalism, more so than the political left, when economic, social and political conditions get “tougher than tough” (Derrick Morgan).

Basic is basic

In the best of times, and especially in the worst of time, folks are just not going to sacrifice their physiological needs on the altar ideology. Here in Jamaica Michael Manley, perhaps more than any of our prime ministers, learned that crucial lesson the hard way, as we say in local parlance.

The objective evidence shows that by late 1978, “The treasury had been drained. The Bank of Jamaica ran out of reserves in foreign exchange for the first time, and had to use funds set aside for paying debt… In addition, there was a growing flight of capital. Unemployment increased to a record 27 per cent, aided by the fallout of the make-work projects. The value of the total production of the economy (gross domestic product [GDP]) in 1980 was 17.5 per cent less than in 1972, after decreasing every year but one. Inflation increased by 250 per cent, peaking at 49.4 per cent in 1978.” (The Gleaner, October 23, 2016)

A hungry man has few, if any political loyalties. Many in today’s political arena still don’t get that.

Recall that when the Andrew Holness-led Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) pummelled the People’s National Party (PNP) on September 3, 2020, I said among other things in this space: “The JLP will have to be on its Ps and Qs. Its members will have to focus on delivery. They will have to deliver or become a political castaway.” (Jamaica Observer, September 6, 2020)

I have not recoiled from that position.

Rhetoric is important, but rhetoric minus results, especially the ones that satisfy physiological needs, is a recipe for political rejection.

Peruvian President Pedro Castillo is said to have the gift of gab, but words “cyaan nyam”, as we say in local parlance. Thousands of Peruvians who cannot buy food and take care of related daily obligations have taken to the streets of major cities, shouting “Away with Castillo!” He is fighting for his political life.

Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is said to have a sugary tongue, but his Government is teetering and about to capsize. “Sri Lanka defaults on all foreign debts,” that was a breaking news item in numerous media last Tuesday.

The “autoclaps” in Peru and Sri Lanka are not limited to those two countries.

Consider this: “From Pakistan to Peru, soaring food and fuel prices are tipping countries over the edge.”

Renowned cricketer Imran Khan, who turned politician, and until last Monday was the prime minister of Pakistan, was ousted in a no-confidence vote. The mentioned article notes that the spiralling cost of living — food and fuel, in particular — ascribed to economic mismanagement, some of it inherited, was the straw that brought Khan’s regime to its knees.

Check this: “Political instability has already been building in parts of the continent. A series of coups have taken place in West and Central Africa since the start of 2021. Even countries with more developed economies, which have greater buffers to shield citizens from painful price increases, won’t have the tools to fully cushion the blow.

Thousands of protesters gathered in cities across Greece this week to demand higher wages to counter inflation, while France’s presidential election is narrowing as far-right candidate Marine Le Pen plays up her plans to reduce the cost of living. President Emmanuel Macron’s Government said last month it was considering issuing food vouchers so that middle- and low-income families could afford to eat (CNN Business Report, April 9, 2022).

The Andrew Holness Administration needs to “tek sleep and mark death”. Folks are not detained by the realities of the receding novel coronavirus pandemic. They know that Russia invaded the Ukraine. That, reality, however, will not stop folks demanding that Holness’s team delivers the basics to enable the satisfaction of physiological needs. It’s Realpolitik!

Holness and his team would do well to remember this too: “Mohamed Bouazizi didn’t set himself on fire because he couldn’t blog or vote,” an Emirati commentator wrote in January 2011, referring to the street vendor whose protest act helped launch the revolution in Tunisia and, ultimately, the Arab world. “People set themselves on fire because they can’t stand seeing their family wither away slowly, not of sorrow, but of cold stark hunger.” (CNN Business Report, April 9, 2022)

There is a great lesson here.

Very vulnerable

President of the World Bank David Malpass, in a broadcast from Warsaw, Poland, last Monday, said SIDS faced unprecedented challenges to growth, security and stability. SIDS did not cause their own troubles, yet they are facing most of the hugely debilitating impact. This is a recurring decimal.

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of the Ukraine is now in its eighth week. But we in Jamaica have been feeling the biting impact of an unjustified attack on the breadbasket of Europe from day one. The prices of numerous basic food items are increasing at an alarming rate and are likely to continue to spiral for many months to come.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, last Thursday, said that Russia will pursue its objectives in Ukraine until they are met. I believe that utterance is a clear warning that even darker clouds are on the economic, social, and political horizons for SIDS.

Countries like Jamaica have been caught nearly flat-footed in critical matters like our food security because we have allowed ourselves to be bamboozled by a narrative which encourages dependency on imports, even of those basic food items which can be successfully grown here.

Many SIDS, Jamaica included, are now trapped in a cul-de-sac, where we are dependent on others to feed us. Nearly 60 years after political independence this is a tragic reality. We have no one to blame but ourselves.

Jairam Ramesh, noted Indian economist and politician, pointed out that, “A country that cannot feed itself cannot have self-pride.” I agree!

Michael Manley’s regime in the 1970s had an overwhelming negative impact. But one of the few positives, and it’s a big one too, was Manley’s insistence that we needed to be able to feed ourselves. We have not achieved that objective.

Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine is another opportunity to begin to fix that great deficit. The crisis is another opportunity, SIDS should not waste.

Democracy in recession?

I believe those who are intent on advancing far-right/ethno nationalism are not wasting any opportunity to hijack democratic institutions. I believe that, for the far right, the absence of the rule of law in real terms means the abandoning of centuries of tricameralism and replacing it with the rule of man, which is predicated on the absence of justiciable access/recourse for those who are regarded as ‘other’.

I think too many democracies have become lazy. This lapse in concentration and its most noticeable consequence, namely a failure to deliver the basics, has long been a gaping wound, which has long caught the attention of those who prey on injuries, economic, social and or political.

The present rapid advance of far-right/ethno nationalism globally is no accident. Former President of the United States of America Barack Obama, in a recent statement, called the war in the Ukraine a “tragedy of historic proportions” and a “reminder for democracies that have gotten flabby and confused and feckless around the stakes of things that we tended to take for granted”.

The beast of far-right/ethno nationalism is quickening its pace by strategically and unrelentingly attacking democracy’s aorta.

I believe Donald J Trump and his failed attempt to overturn and ruin the democratic institutions of America was part and parcel of a carefully calculated scheme to rescind the rule of law and replace it with the rule of man.

As Europe’s most formidable democracy, France, the birthplace of modern democracy — think the French Revolution and its global consequences — gets ready to vote for a president next Sunday, the significance of this election should not escape the attention of SIDS. The outcome may well determine the future of Europe.

Why? France has the second most powerful military in Europe. France is the fifth biggest economy in the world. And, among other things, France’s diplomatic weight is second only to the USA. France is a key which opens numerous doors in the European Union. This reality is vitally important to SIDS, many of which do most/much of their trading with the EU.

I hear some in Jamaica, including a very misguided clergyman — one of those whose sentences are prefaced with “God told me to tell you…” ‘bigging up’ people like Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orbán, prime minister of Hungary. People like this greatly misinformed man of the cloth don’t know ‘what o’clock a strike’, as rural folks say.

Le Pen is far-right/ethno nationalist, so is Orbán. Le Pen and Orbán are political facsimiles of Donald J Trump, in my estimation. Except for those who have just landed from Mars, the implications should be obvious. Orbán just recently won another election. Fareed Zakaria, one of the most respected journalists globally, said Orbán “has manipulated Hungary’s democracy in ways that give him structural advantages”. Zakaria, in a recent Global Public Square broadcast on CNN, noted that “Orbán, in 2010, gave citizenship to 2.4 million ethnic Hungarians living abroad”. Orbán, Zakaria said, “has quashed the independent media in Hurgary”. These are the kinds of folks some in Jamaican want us to embrace. We should rebuke them without apology.

Cold embrace

On the subject of embrace, PNP President Mark Golding was not exactly greeted with warm embrace when he recently visited Hanover and Portland. He and the PNP should be very concerned at the continued lack of traction.

Prime Minister Andrew Holness has clearly said that he will not be calling an election this year. So what is the purpose of Golding’s election trek across the island? I have seen some footage of Golding’s tour on social media and elsewhere. What I have seen to date does not at all look encouraging for 89 Old Hope Road.

Then last Tuesday the findings of yet another scientific poll told the country what three previous polls had found, namely that Golding is seriously under water and he is pulling the PNP under with him.

As recent as three Sundays ago I said in this space that the PNP was becoming a pressure group and was walking around in a cloak with “too strong to win but too weak to disappear written on the back”. These findings, dismal for the PNP, should concern all well-thinking Jamaicans who want a strong Opposition.

The Nationwide News Network story said, among other things: “The overwhelming majority of Jamaicans still see Prime Minister Andrew Holness as the leader the country needs now. That’s according to a recent survey conducted by the Centre for Leadership and Governance at The University of the West Indies. The survey shows Holness enjoying a double-digit lead across several categories when pitted against his political rival — the PNP’s Mark Golding.

“When surveyed, 74 per cent of respondents chose Prime Minister Andrew Holness as the leader the country needs now. That’s compared to only 26 per cent favour of Opposition Leader Mark Golding. That’s a massive gap of 48 points between the two leaders.”

Golding’s position at the helm of the PNP could well be turn out to be shorter than that of his predecessor, Dr Peter Phillips. The JLP needs to understand, however, that the PNP is dying, but is not dead.