We are at a time of significant change in Jamaica. Some would say we are at an inflection point. We have two clear choices before us: Continued embrace of seismic shifts away from how we have conducted many aspects of our national affairs for the last 60 years, or regression, which means backsliding to an unusable past.

Objective reality tells us that if we are to realise our true potential as a nation we need to continue up the road of paradigm shifts in education, industry, agriculture, security, health, social justice, physical infrastructure, and indeed all the vital branches of a fully functional and vibrant State.

Objective reality from credible local, regional and international sources tells us that, at present, we are achieving major advances that will redound to the benefit of all Jamaican. But there are some among us who do not want to see Jamaica discard the mantle of an unusable past.

How might folks sift the wheat from the chaff?

“Beware of the naked man who offers you clothes,” I believe the application of this African proverb is the best answer.

No plan for Ja’s future

Mark Golding, the leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, is the prime minister-in-waiting.

I maintain that it is not just a responsibility but the duty of every well-thinking citizen to interrogate his plans and programmes and/or the absence thereof.

I believe it is spectacularly irresponsible to take the position that the country should wait until the People’s National Party (PNP) forms a future Administration before they are put under the microscope of laser-like public scrutiny. The embrace of the proverbial ‘puss inna bag’ (acceptance of outlandish and impractical promises without critique) approach in the conduct of our national affairs has done immeasurable damage to the social, economic, and political growth and development of this country.

The absence of a cohesive and fundable plan for Jamaica’s future, as I see it, is the biggest Achilles heel of the Opposition.

Six years ago, I said here that the Opposition was suffering with a famine of ideas. Last week more evidence of how right I am splashed onto the public pavement.

Consider this headline from Loop Jamaica: ‘Golding flays PM for not shuffling Cabinet ‘in meaningful way’ ‘ The news item said, among other things: “Opposition leader and People’s National Party (PNP) President Mark Golding has poured the proverbial cold water on the new-look Cabinet of Prime Minister Andrew Holness, arguing that the latter could not reshuffle the Cabinet in any ‘meaningful way’.

“Golding, in his address to Comrades at a stop during a tour of South East St Mary on Friday, accused Holness of being ‘unsettled’, highlighting what he seemingly suggested was the perceived lacklustre recent changes to the Cabinet.

” ‘Him [Holness] juggle a few little things, but the major changes him waan mek [in the Cabinet] from January him couldn’t mek because his own situation is not very strong in there,’ Golding asserted.”

On the hustings, opponents throw political jabs, I get it. But, beyond the firing of political projectiles there must be the presentation of real and practical substance.

In 2023, no well-thinking citizen should accept the political entrée as the main course.

Regression is not the way forward.

Golding is campaigning to be the next prime minister of Jamaica. He has had almost three years to rehearse for the highest-elected political office in the land. He is touring Jamaica for the umpteenth time. By now Golding should be able to itemise the specifics of a plan for the future growth and development of Jamaica and also detail how it centres on every constituency he revisits.

I think it is an insult to the constituents of St Mary South Eastern, and the people of Jamaica in general, that with a little over two years before the next general election, they are served mere razzle-dazzle and fluff at a public meeting.

Long ago, I said here that I hail from the constituency of St Mary South Eastern. I, therefore, have a personal interest in needing to know the real and fundable/practical plans and programmes which Golding has for the growth and development of this constituency.

The majors

Jamaica, economically — and especially socially — is still in a very sensitive state. We still have many hurdles to jump. But it is obvious — maybe except to those fixated in political colic — that there are credible reasons for real medium- and longer-term economic hope; notwithstanding our many long-standing problems.

Again, Golding is the alternative prime minister. I believe ever Jamaican has a duty to insist that, at a minimum, he provides workable/fundable answers to the following questions:

1) Where are his and the PNP’s new and/or better ideas on how to grow the Jamaican economy?

2) Where are his and the PNP’s new and/or better ideas to remedy the long-standing matters of social decline?

3) Where are his and the PNP’s new and/or better ideas to fix the issue of major crimes, and murder in particular?

Fluff is regression. Jamaica has had enough of that.

Fuel gauge near ‘E’

Most Jamaicans are familiar with the adage, ‘A promise is a comfort to a fool.’ Only a foolish person is not immediately suspicious when a hungry man offers him/her food.

Consider this from The Sunday Gleaner of June 4, 2023: “Citing glaring inequities in the society arising from the public sector compensation review undertaken by the Government, Mark Golding has promised that a future People’s National Party (PNP) Government will evaluate the structure and take steps to bridge the gap between the haves and have-nots.”

Nowhere in the mentioned story did Golding give even an iota of the precise steps the PNP would employ were it returned to Jamaica House.

I am from the rural parts. I often heard my late grandfather say, ‘A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.’ Most Jamaicans still believe in this logic. I am one. Of course, the PNP is obviously desperate to get back into power. Recall that on the political hustings former senator, Kern Spencer, said, among other things: “Comrades, if the PNP should lose a next election in Jamaica dawg nyam wi suppah. Comrades, if we don’t win this one [read local government election] it is going to be even more difficult to win any more election for the People’s National Party.” (Jamaica Observer, June 14, 2022)

Mark Golding knows that if he does not get a win in a consequential election, or at least manages a respectable draw in the next local government polls, his political goose is cooked.

One would think this reality would have caused 89 Old Hope Road to realise that the mere arousal of its base will not enable it to retake Jamaica House. The absence of this key realisation tells me that the PNP is wobbling along near ‘E’ (empty).

I said here 11 Sundays ago that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) was headed for a third-consecutive term at Jamaica House. The PNP, to me, still seems marooned on fantasy Island. Golding’s continued failure to present a practical and fundable plan for Jamaica’s future is another reason for my forecast. I presented other reasons in my previous The Agenda pieces.

Hostage to events, but…

Benjamin Franklin, one of the founding fathers of America, famously said: “Nothing is certain except death and taxes.”

I believe in the accuracy of Franklin’s aphorism. So let me hasten to say that, while I stand by my forecast of a third-consecutive term for the JLP, I also recognise that political administrations are hostages to events. These can either be man-made or acts of Mother Nature. If some catastrophic natural disaster, God forbid, were to hit Jamaica, notwithstanding the country’s catastrophe insurance, that could shift the political dial decidedly in the direction of the PNP. Conversely, such an event could also shift the dial further away from the PNP. Think the quick return of amenities like electricity, water and food supplies to normality.

A calamitous, political scandal is an example of man-made event that could also decisively shift the political pendulum to the PNP. If there is no man-made and/or natural catastrophes between now and the next major election, and the JLP increases its delivery of outcomes that register in people’s pockets and on their dinner tables, then the JLP will conclusively win the next national election.

The JLP cannot afford to lose the next national poll. To do so would throw a political lifeline to a still divided PNP. Recall, almost two years ago, I said in this space: “People’s National Party (PNP) President Mark Golding’s position atop the shaky political perch will be pulled hither and thither by increased tensions and dogged by cock-ups, inexpert optics, and amateurish political choreography until he achieves a victory at the ballot box.” (Jamaica Observer, July 11, 2021)

I have been proved right several times since that political forecast. By the way, while the Opposition leader is worrying his head off about the conservative nature of the prime minister’s Cabinet shuffle, Golding has lost sight of what I believe is Holness’s political strategy.

I believe Holness, by his action, has effectively said, especially to his first-time Members of Parliament: Stay in the vineyards, serve, and deliver to ensure another bumper harvest.

Social media virality

It is obvious to anyone who observes the swirling of the political tea leaves that the PNP has invested a tremendous amount of resources into increasing its social media presence since September 3, 2020, when it was trounced 49-14.

Many political commentators post our 18th parliamentary election noised it abroad that a primary reason for the JLP’s pummeling of the PNP was that 20 Belmont Road outfoxed 89 Old Hope Road on various social media platforms. There is currency to that view. But I believe that there are two more important reasons that the JLP trashed the PNP in the last general election.

Recall that after the JLP handsomely won the by election in St Mary South Eastern on October 30, 2017, a win I predicted, I said this, among other things: “One of Andrew Holness’s biggest pluses as leader of the JLP is that he has reinvigorated and revitalised the sleeping giant of the JLP’s winning mentality.” The rekindling of that winning mentality has not dwindled. I think it is now even stronger.

Recall this headline: ‘Come April, 4 the JLP’s Vaz will beat the PNP’s Crawford’ (Jamaica Observer, March 31, 2019). Recall Ann-Marie Vaz, then a political neophyte, was up against the then vice president of the PNP and its most popular politician, Damion Crawford. Portland Eastern was stamped as the fourth-safest PNP seat. Most political commentators were at best ambivalent that the JLP could win, while others predicted a PNP win.

Prior to the mentioned by-election I pointed out here that the JLP’s machinery was spectacularly well-oiled and that when this was combined with the return of its winning mentality, message momentum, and money, a win was on the card.

I was proved right.

This is something else for pundits. Social media virality is necessary but it is not sufficient to win a national election. As I see it, social media virality is not the most important key to winning the next general election. The vast majority of swing voters in marginal seats are going to be swayed by doable enticements fixed to a better future for themselves and the country, I forecast.

Public terror

I previously said in this space that a lot deviant behaviour in this country is the result of our slow and low-consequence environment. I stand by that.

Last week we woke up to news that a miscreant had plunged one of our biggest commercial centres and one of the capitals of our vital tourist industry into panic. Why? Likes for his music career was his motive. The malefactor released a bomb threat on social media. Huge amounts of resources had to be deployed to ensure the safety of citizens. Thankfully, the threat was a dud.

Last week, a lawbreaker used a bomb threat to temporarily disrupt the operations of a public school.

Minister of Local Government and Rural Development Desmond McKenzie told us last week about the strain of prank calls on the fire services.

Swift, sure, and effective consequences are the clear remedies.

Garfield Higgins is an educator, journalist and a senior advisor to the minister of education and youth. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.