Jason McKay
What is the magic number?
Taiwan, also called Chinese Taipei, has a murder rate of less than one per 100,000. It is actually .03, so it doesn’t even officially appear as a statistic. China, it’s neighbourhood bully, has a murder rate of 0.5 per 100,000. Both these countries have a history of extreme violence and brutality.
Taiwan actually exists because it was the last stand of the retreating army of the nationalists in the civil war between Chairman Mao and Chiang kei-Shek. Both of these countries, if you want to consider Taiwan a country, have a history of extreme violence that far surpasses your imagination — yet they kill no more.
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The United States of America has a murder rate of five per 100,000. This, despite having the most liberal gun laws in the world, a history of violence from the early days of slavery to the horror stories of racial lynching, and the existence of a faction of the most famous gangs that originate in other countries.
Barbados had a murder rate in 2024 of 18.2 per 100,000. The people are quite alarmed by it. Jamaica has a murder rate that dances in the range of 45 to 50 per 100,000 every year.
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I have quoted the above statistics to represent how much trouble we are in. We have been in this much trouble for many years. In the 70s we slid into chaos because of the political civil war. We somewhat recovered in the 80s, but in the 90s a number of things occurred which I have detailed in other articles and don’t have to repeat now.
We have not seen a murder rate in the last 20 years that could be described as anything else but chronic. We are, in effect, fighting for our lives.
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Trinidad and Tobago declared a state of emergency when its murders increased to 623 in 2024. We are fighting and improving with virtually no laws that restrict the rights of citizens. Despite the fact that that is really what we need.
Whilst many of us in Jamaica are part of the struggle against the gangs, I keep hearing complaints that police shootings are too high. So let us start at the beginning. We have a group of men who are able to commit the murder of more than 1,000 people in a good year and over 1,500 in a bad year. We instruct, equip, and engage the security forces to oppose this group. It is obvious that if you are to oppose a group of men that can kill between 1,000 and 1,500 people in one year, then it is likely that if you approach them with the intention of caging them, like animals, and taking away their weapons, that combat will occur.
If combat occurs, then it is likely that there will be casualties. What then is an acceptable figure for casualties of gang members that we expect to occur? It cannot simply be based on a comparison to the year before. That is vacuous.
Police shootings are a product primarily of police operations or police presence. This will vary from year to year. So comparing the rate without studying the operational output makes no sense. We are not in a position where we are negotiating terms with these gangs, like that which has occurred in Northern Ireland, and what I honestly think will eventually occur in Haiti after this half-cocked, inadequately staffed and resourced international contingent completes its tenure. We are opposing them — as a society, as a police force — as criminals.
So what then is your magic number for police shootings? Or is it that it is zero. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that from Jamaicans For Justice, as simplistic as that sounds.
Let me explain something to you, because I don’t think you realise how much trouble we are in. I am talking directly to the criminal rights groups. Did you see the recent recovery of weapons at the wharf? Did you notice the presence of rifles at an increasing percentage for each recovery? This translates to the gangs, being armed, more often with rifles. Take it from me who has been at the receiving, and giving, end of rifle combat. Short guns are no match for long guns!
If this continues, licensed firearm holders will become virtually defenceless when they come under attack, which they do several times a year. This will include money couriers. The police and the army, although armed with rifles, will be less capable than they are now to win gun fights against the enemy, which, of course, are the gangs, the same group for whom you champion their cause.
As a nation, we are in a fight for our lives. We are improving, but we were improving in 2011. This came to an end to a significant degree because of that small, but powerful subset of Jamaican people that championed the cause of the gangs under their description as human rights activists.
This scenario that I have pointed out, that the gangs could be in a position to demand negotiations with the Government in a few years, is real, but can only occur with your participation. So whilst you are standing in Half-Way-Tree with your little placards, made uptown far from the dons that are sending for other people’s teenage daughters, consider that this reality may be, one day, your reality and not just your gardener’s.
Feedback: drjasonamckay@gmail.com
