BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says a Caribbean heat season with heat waves will most likely begin occurring as early as April and gradually ramp up, but it is unlikely to match the levels of 2023 and 2024.

CariCOF, in its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks for the upcoming period April to June, released on Monday, said that this is due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions in the Pacific, combined with unusually warm waters around the Caribbean and temporarily cooler waters in the eastern Tropical North Atlantic.

It is also predicting that in April, high evaporation rates, frequent short dry spells, and buildup of any ongoing drought increase wildfire potential.

CariCOF says except for the mostly dry ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao), rainfall intensity and shower frequency should rise towards May in the Bahamas, Guianas and Greater Antilles, or June in Belize and the Lesser Antilles “resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.

“Episodes of Saharan dust intrusion will likely be frequent; the more frequent these are, the more dryness and heat, and the more erratic the occurrence of severe weather,” CariCOF added.

In its latest drought situation, CariCOF said moderate, or worse, short-term drought has developed in the central and northern Bahamas, the Cayman Islands, parts of St Croix, Saint Maarten and St Bart’s.

It said long-term drought is evolving in southern Belize, northern Dominican Republic, southwest Jamaica, St Bart’s, St Vincent, southeast Suriname and northwest Trinidad.