Notwithstanding its highly touted list of solid achievements and what prime minister and Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Andrew Michael Holness insists is an incomparable level of performance in Government, Labourites appear to be very nervous and jittery. Why?

It is safe and fair to say that when all is said and done this JLP Administration has many feathers in its cap. Murders overall are down by some 30-odd per cent, tourism is booming, inflation is being tamed, all across the island infrastructural works are in abundance, favourable employment figures, and the Jamaican dollar is relatively stable. These are some of the positive key indicators of a country whose macro-economic performance is going in the right direction. So why the increasing apprehension, Prime Minister Holness?

Although putting up a brave face, the JLP is panicking and has been behaving like a cornered animal about to be devoured by its opponent. In his 2025 Budget Presentation, the prime minister spoke for over an unprecedented five hours, dotting every possible ‘i’ and crossing every perceivable ‘t’ in what appeared to be a desperate bid to convince the Jamaican people that he and his party deserve a third term, for the first time at last. Indeed, many listeners came to the conclusion that during his stellar performance he sometimes came across as if he was in Opposition rather than being at the helm of Government.

Meanwhile, the People’s National Party (PNP) has been scurrying to get the nation’s attention, with its President Mark Golding recently bemoaning the fact that it was having problems getting its messages across because of what it perceives as the JLP dominating the media space and certain influential sectors of high society have not been buying into its quest for change.

This would suggest that the JLP ought to be smiling all the way to the bank, so to speak, but, no. The racist attacks against “Markie G” and the bellicose utterances that the country should never give the Comrades another bout at the wicket would strongly suggest to any discerning observer that the JLP is in fear of losing the upcoming general election.

Now I know that JLP trolls and other diehard followers will be quick to counter my observations, but I would advise them to take seriously what the tea leaves are saying, because there is every reason to conclude that there is an undercurrent of support for the PNP based on a great deal of discontent among many working class Jamaicans which may lead to a tsunami on election day that can wipe out the many gains it made in the election held in 2020.

Bearing in mind that successive polls in recent times have been indicating that the majority of Jamaicans remain convinced that the country is going in the wrong direction, its behoves Prime Minister Holness and his team to fully analyse the basis for this perception, which, for many, is a reality. In this vein, they should not take the Jamaican people for granted, assuming that the handing out of goodies will sufficiently assuage their fears, misgivings, vexations, and complaints.

Firstly, there is a governance issue which the JLP leader skirted over in his recent presentation in Parliament, preferring to give his disgruntled malcontents just “cake” rather than presenting a menu of transformational policies that should focus on the fight against that gargantuan monsters — corruption, integrity in public office, and most importantly, creating a greater level of trust between the Government and the electorate.

In a country where persistent poverty remains a harsh reality, values and attitudes are as important, if not more so, as bread and butter issues in the very final analysis, Prime Minister Holness, as well as that so-called prosperity, which may turn out to be just a fleeting moment of gratification.

To put it bluntly, there is a widening trust factor between the JLP leader and the Jamaican people which has been further exacerbated by the ongoing saga with the Integrity Commission. In this vein, it is hard for the average Jamaican citizen to come to terms with a Government that gave a whopping increase in salaries to Members of Parliament, many of whom have been underperforming and some of whom are deemed to be corrupt because of unexplained wealth. Tom drunk but Tom no fool, sir.

There is also what is known in politics as the ‘incumbency syndrome’ whereby the people just “get tired fi see uno face”. Anti-incumbency, as stated by
Wikipedia, “is sentiment in favour of voting out incumbent politicians for the specific reason of being incumbent politicians. It is sometimes referred to as a ‘throw the bums out’ sentiment. Periods of anti-incumbent sentiment are typically characterised by wave elections. This sentiment can also lead to support for term limits. In a two-party system, anti-incumbent voters have only one party to vote for when voting against the incumbent.”

Traditionally, voters have tended to give each party two terms to prove its worth. PJ Patterson broke that trend to some extent because of a disunited JLP and an unpopular Edward Seaga, who was perceived as “One Don”.

Holness now faces a similar scenario, as many Jamaicans fear that he has been exhibiting certain autocratic tendencies. Beating his chest (figuratively) like the alpha male that he is and declaring that the PNP should never be allowed to govern Jamaica again is an extremist position that he should desist from promoting because it may well help to reinforce in the minds of many well-thinking Jamaicans the accusation that he has ‘Trumpian’ ambitions.

Lest we forget, Jamaica has had one of the world’s most stable and respected democracies, with a two-party system that has, for the most past, worked well since 1962. The country needs both the JLP and PNP to continue to preserve this preferred system of Government despite its perceived flaws. A vibrant and viable Opposition party is an essential ingredient that must be maintained at all cost.

The JLP’s nervousness about losing the 2025 General Election should not cause it to panic and thus overturn its basket of goodies which may become spilt milk. The PNP has the democratic right to put up an effective fight to regain State power, so let the games begin!

Lloyd B Smith has been involved in Jamaican media approaching 50 years. He has served as a Member of Parliament and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives. He hails from western Jamaica where he is popularly known as the Governor. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or lbsmith4@gmail.com.

Mark Golding

Jamaicans are to go to the polls by September 2025.