(From left) France's goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier, France's goalkeeper Brice Samba and France's goalkeeper Mike Maignan walk onto the pitch prior to the UEFA Nations League quarter-final first-leg football match between Croatia and France at the Poljud Stadium in Split, on March 20, 2025. (Photo: AFP)
World Cup 2026: A potential political football
With just over 14 months before the 2026 men’s World Cup begins, no team has yet qualified except the host countries (United States, Canada, and Mexico), automatically, and the only known countries that will not be there are Russia (suspended indefinitely on February 22, 2022 due to the invasion of Ukraine), Eritrea (withdrew prior to playing any qualifying matches, reportedly due to concerns that players would seek political asylum if allowed to travel overseas), and the Congo (suspended on February 6, 2025 due to government interference in the operations of the Congolese Football Federation – all remaining matches have been cancelled).
The historic 2026 World Cup will mark the third time Mexico will serve as hosts for the men’s World Cup (also hosted in 1979 and 1986), the second time it will be played on American soil (the first was in 1994), but the first for Canada. While Mexico will become the first third-time host, this will be the second time more than one country has accommodated the month-long festival, following Japan and South Korea in 2002, but this will be the first across three countries. Additionally, the tournament will, for the first time, feature an expanded format, with 48 teams participating, up from the usual 32.
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With qualifying action resuming earlier this week, JustBet is already offering outright odds for the winner, with the early top five favourites being France, Spain, Brazil, England, and Argentina, in that order. The host countries sit 13th, 14th, and 21st in the depth chart, namely USA, Mexico, and Canada, respectively. However, deeper than their places in the odds table are issues that could possibly derail the ecosystem that has been synonymous with World Cups past and jeopardise the logistics and coordination required for a successful staging, especially across these many borders.
The tri-hosts of the tournament, with the USA sandwiched between Canada and Mexico, have been at economic, political, and social odds since Donald Trump regained presidency of the United States in early January. The decision to award these three countries with hosting rights was made in June 2018, during Trump’s first term, but it was not without its fair share of controversy. In February of 2017, when President Trump waved the idea of imposing travel bans for various countries, UEFA president and FIFA vice-president, Aleksander Ceferin, indicated that the United States’ bid to host the 2026 edition would be severely impacted by any restrictive measures that would prevent players, fans, or journalists from attending.
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Having won the bid, the hosts have been actively preparing for the last five years, through even the COVID-19 epidemic, and there is more work to be done leading up to June 11, 2026. Major investments have been made in stadiums, transportation infrastructure, security provisions, and hospitality services, across all three nations. These preparations are largely independent of political leadership changes and are focused on meeting FIFA’s requirements, but the recent happenings between the USA and its co-hosts are poised to upset the applecart, positioning the event as a potential political football.
The recent tariff war, while not directly connected to the World Cup, has strained the political and economic relationship between the USA and both co-hosts, and it has not helped that the US president has toyed with the idea of Canada becoming America’s next sovereign state and forcibly attempting to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. However, that has socio-economic (and political) underpinnings and should not play out on the football landscape, but no doubt it will, and the ramifications may be far-reaching. Space would not allow for any deep dive into the possible effects this political rift can have on the staging of the tournament, and time will reveal how that is addressed, but there are more immediate concerns closer to the surface.
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The players, fans, and press core are fundamental to a successful tournament and America’s travel bans and restrictions may significantly affect the millions that are expected to attend and participate. The first match is just over 400 days away and many African, Central American, and South American countries have been hit with no-travel or severe travel restrictions that will almost certainly eliminate many from attending. Appointment wait times for B-1 and B-2 visas – tourist visas that would be required – can take anywhere from 600 to 700 days for those countries, and co-host Mexico is in a hotbed border war with their northerly neighbour. The latest development in this saga being the suspension of visa processes at the US Embassy in Bogota, Colombia, by President Trump after getting into a dispute with the Colombian president.
Albeit, athletes and team officials are unlikely to face the same issues as spectators because they would apply for a different type of visa, which have a significantly less wait time, but due to the volatility of the situation, it is anybody’s guess what the end of 2025 will look like, and there is very good reason to assume the worst in this cold-war atmosphere. And the fact that the USA is slated to host approximately 75 per cent of the games, including the final, makes the question of travelling between countries even more of a concern.
In the months leading up to the World Cup, it is customarily an optimistic affair. The unveiling of new stadiums, the debut of attractive ad campaigns, and the launching of merchandise, the tournament song and a mascot, to name a few. This time around things are shaping up a lot differently. The reciprocal tariffs, bouts of cross-border insults, and deteriorating diplomatic relations between the host nations have mis-shaped the start of 2025 and looks set to assimilate into the greatest stage of “the beautiful game”. In a letter to FIFA in 2018, when the USA was bidding to host these games, Trump said, “All eligible athletes, officials, and fans from all countries around the world would be able to enter the United States without discrimination.” He said he was “confident” the US would host the World Cup in a “similarly open and festive manner” like when it hosted the 1996 Summer Olympics and 1994 World Cup. Those word now seem like a lifetime ago.
While domestic and foreign policies can change, even as dramatically as is being experienced under the new American leadership, sports (more often than not) promote diplomacy and cooperation among nations. The collaboration between the USA, Canada, and Mexico for this tournament would have been formed in an environment that transcends political differences and personal idiosyncrasies. It is the hope that cooler heads will prevail and World Cup 2026 will proceed as planned, and that the logistical coordination of the event will guide a path to a cordial, diplomatic ending to the ongoing impasse.
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World Cup 2026 Winner
Team Odds
France 7.00
Spain 7.00
Brazil 7.20
England 8.00
Argentina 11.00
Germany 11.00
Portugal 17.00
Netherlands 21.00
Italy 22.00
Uruguay 30.00
*Only Top 10 odds shown (see website for full list)
Note: Odds are subject to change
