The 2024-25 NFL Season: Week 18, two play-off spots in the balance
Heading into Week 18 of the 2024/25 National Football League (NFL) regular season, there are still two play-off spots and three division titles yet undecided. The penultimate week saw three more teams clinch their place in the postseason and two fall out of contention, setting up some anxious games this weekend, particularly for the five aspirants vying for the two remaining spots.
So far, 12 teams — six in the American Football Conference (AFC) and six in the National Football Conference (NFC) — have secured a play-off berth, leaving only one spot available in each conference. The Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals are still alive in the AFC, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons are the only ones left contending in the NFC. And with only one available play-off slot in each conference, there is absolutely no room for error this weekend. The AFC North, NFC South, and NFC North Division winners are also still to be decided, which adds to the drama expected in the final week.
This is what we know heading into Week 18 for the AFC:
Clinched division and play-off spot: Kansas City Chiefs (No 1 seed), Buffalo Bills (No 2 seed), Houston Texans (No 4 seed)
Clinched play-off spot: Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers
This is what we know heading into Week 18 for the NFC:
Clinched division and play-off spot: Philadelphia Eagles (No 2 seed), Los Angeles Rams (No 3 or 4 seed)
Clinched play-off spot: Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Washington Commanders
The last AFC wild card spot will be confirmed this Sunday afternoon to either the Broncos, Dolphins or Bengals. Cincinnati forced the three-way battle to go into the final week of the regular season thanks to the exciting 30-24 win over Denver in Week 17. The Broncos tackle the Chiefs this Sunday afternoon and, having already secured the No 1 seed and the wild card bye, Kansas City will reportedly rest many of the starters, which would hand the Broncos a perfect opportunity — for the second week in a row — to snatch the final AFC play-off spot, thereby ending the longshot hopes of the Dolphins and Bengals.
If Denver loses, Miami would be first in line to benefit because they would only need to beat the New York Jets on Sunday to clinch a play-off spot. The games for both Denver and Miami are slated to start at the same time so both will have a side eye on each other’s results. Cincinnati, on the other hand, needs more than a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers tomorrow, Saturday, in the event Denver suffers a loss, as Miami must also lose for the Bengals to qualify for the postseason. If all three — the Broncos, Dolphins and Bengals — lose, Denver will secure the final AFC play-off spot.
In the NFC, the Falcons and Buccaneers are fighting for the last remaining spot. The Falcons suffered a 24-30 overtime loss to the Commanders last weekend, which impacted their postseason ambitions, and need to beat the lowly Carolina Panthers on Sunday, then eye the result of the Buccaneers game against the New Orleans Saints, to see who will win the NFC South Division, and also claim the final NFC play-off spot. If both the Falcons and Buccaneers lose, the Buccaneers will claim the division and the spot.
Based on the results of a few other games this weekend, the jostling for play-off positioning will make for an interesting watch, in both the AFC and NFC, but none more enticing than the NFC North Division clash between the Lions and the Vikings, with both boasting a 14-2 record, in the final game of the regular season on Sunday night. This divisional battle will feature the first matchup ever in the regular season between teams with at least 14 wins.
Minnesota, who had a hard-fought 27-25 victory over division rivals Green Bay last Sunday, will be visiting Ford Field to tackle Detroit, who is coming off a thrilling 40-34 victory over the San Francisco 49ers last Monday night. The Lions, who beat the Vikings 31-29 in Week 6, currently hold the No 1 seed in the NFC and a win (or draw) for Detroit would leave things as is, with Minnesota locked into the fifth seed. However, if the Vikings were to win, they would leapfrog into the No 1 seed and Detroit would fall to the No 5 seed. Come what may, a 14-win team will be playing in the wild card round of the play-offs, on the road, for the first time. There has never been a wild card team with at least 14 wins, the Tennessee Titans had the previous high in 1999 with a 13-3 record.
JustBet favourites Detroit will, more than likely, come out of this momentous clash with a win but, if they do lose and have to hit the road to start the playoffs, they at least have comfort in the fact that they went 8-0 away from home, the only team to win all away games this season — the Vikings are 6-1 on the road entering this weekend. The Lions are the 10th team in NFL history to go 8-0 or better on the road, with three of the previous nine going all the way to claim the Vince Lombardi Trophy: the San Francisco 49ers in 1985 and 1990, and New England Patriots in 2017. This seismic NFC North battle should not be missed.
There are still many seeding permutations riding on the results of this weekend’s games, including division titles, and those with anything to play for will be pressing full throttle. Win and you’re in (or at least give yourself a chance), lose and you’re not (unless you happen to be the Broncos). Are you ready for some football?
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Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs 4.50
Detroit Lions 5.20
Buffalo Bills 6.80
Baltimore Ravens 7.60
Philadelphia Eagles 8.00
Minnesota Vikings 9.40
Green Bay Packers 16.00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30.00
Los Angeles Rams 35.00
Los Angeles Chargers 35.00
*Only Top 10 odds are shown (see website for full list)
Note: Odds are subject to change