“She stop, she go, she stop,

She stop, she go, she stop…

Stop and go…” were the lyrics of the song that won our National Festival Song contest in 1989. It was done by Michael Forbes. There was great upset, almost instantaneously, when Forbes’ entry was announced as the top song. Many missed the main messages of the song, completely. Among other things, many people protested that Forbes’ song did not capture the main message and essence of festival. I suspect those individuals wanted to hear a characteristic ballad about the nearly unmatched beauty of the Jamaican landscapes, the delectable taste and smell of our food, the curvaceousness of our women, the giftedness of our people, the embracing and infectiousness of our music, particularly reggae and dancehall, etc.

Forbes’ song did pay homage to the many great qualities of Jamaica, land we love, but he also went further. I understood the song as a candid comment on how Jamaica’s potential was stunted because she made steps forwards but more steps backwards. The detractors missed the metaphor.

POINT OF DEPARTURE

I am using the mentioned song as a point of departure for a conspicuous reality that has burdened Jamaica. I don’t have space to talk about all the residual burdens of slavery and colonialism, so I am restricting my focus to the time since national independence in 1962.

For better or worse — some will say worse, I say better — we decided to row our own boat 62 years ago. Many, if not most of the consequential setbacks since Independence, in my estimation, have not been caused by external forces, but by internal miscalculations, ineptitude, dishonesty, blatant corruption, and related acts of misleadership.

Simultaneously, many consequential advances have been brought about by the deliberate and calculated decisions of visionary leadership; self-sacrificing; statesmanship; and political, social and economic maturity. Our people, in the main, have gone where they have been led. Some journeys have proved hugely deleterious. Still, it cannot be denied that the collective blood, sweat, and tears of all Jamaicans have pushed us forward.

Some will, doubtless, bellow: “Higgins, the past is the past!” Absolutely not; the past is always present. It is the mistakes of our past which ought to guide the decisions of the present and the future; otherwise, we are condemned to what Forbes sang about — stop and go. Forget the past and you repeat it.

Jamaica could have achieved developed country status, like Singapore did in 30 years, if we had not wasted a half of the first 20 years of Independence in the profligate stop-and-go mode. Political scholars agree that the first 20 years of a country’s independence is the time when its people are most malleable. With smart, conscientious, and visionary leadership, people, full of enthusiasm, can be motivated to set social, economic, and political foundations which provide robust rungs for generations.

Jamaica started out well in the 1960s. The economy grew by leaps and bounds. International companies rushed here to set up shop. In the 60s we were a go-to model for rapid economic development. But we dropped the ball by not paying sufficient attention to the high levels of social inequalities, much of it residues from colonialism. This created a political vacuum. Nature abhors a vacuum. Like in nature, wherever there are political vacuums these are filled “quick and fast”, as we say in the streets. The insufficient attention to remedying social inequalities more expeditiously created fertile ground for the economic wrecking ball that Michael Manley and People’s National Party (PNP) proved to be.

What does this have to do with today? Everything! We sprinted out of the blocks in the 60s, and then false-started in the 1970s. Too many, far too many Jamaicans, despite the economic boom of the 60s, became castaways. I am cognisant of many of the lessons of history and, like Mark Twain, I believe, that “history rhymes”. This is a primary reason that I have been warning in this space, for many years, that robust economic variables that are not visible on the dinner tables of folks and felt in the pockets of the majority would eventually lead to huge backlash. We see the backlash happening globally. Folks are saying, “We see the massive improvement in economic variables, but we are not feeling and/or seeing the benefits in our individual lives.”

The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is taking heed regarding that reality. This is good. Prime Minister Andrew Holness recently announced some tangible benefits that will help folks get a piece of the pie. This makes sense. Dr Holness has promised to churn out more initiative/benefits in March next year when the budget debate presentation is read.

When folks don’t see and feel the benefits of robust economic numbers they invariably succumb to the tomfoolery of populism, which in Jamaica’s case was/is Democratic Socialism. Prime Minister Edward Seaga and the JLP repeated too many of the social mistakes of the 60s. The outcome was similar. The JLP was booted from office. The consequences were near catastrophic. For 18½ years Jamaica was stunted. Populism replaced common sense at Jamaica House. These were the worst of times for the majority. History rhymed. We are still recovering. Again, the JLP in the 80s did not pay sufficient attention to what I call the hurting classes.

Our country has been caught in a stop-and-go trap, more so a stopping than going state, regarding social, political, and economic growth and development for more than half the years since Jamaica became independent. Consequently, we have achieved less than half of what we could and should have achieved in 62 years, I believe.

It is my view that Jamaica only ceased her stop-and-go mismanagement of our economic affairs, for example, when we got to the great financial precipice in 2013. Ponder this: “By 2013 Jamaica’s public debt had reached a historic high of about 147 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product], making it one of the most-indebted countries in the world,” says the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As I understand it, this crisis, among other things, meant that Jamaica, a country with long-standing trade deficits, was within a hair’s breadth of what some economists agree is a country’s ‘borrowable limit’.

We were forced to start to think and behave reasonably after decades of foolishness and irrationality. We were forced to fast-track the economic recovery programme started by Prime Minister Bruce Golding and Finance and the Public Service Minister Audley Shaw in 2010. Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and Minister of Finance and the Public Service Dr Peter Phillips were faithful to the implementation of the economic recovery programme. Since 2016, Prime Minister Andrew Holness with Dr Nigel Clarke, who recently resigned as the minister of finance and public service, to take up the post of deputy managing director of the IMF, have worked hard to prevent a repeat of past mistakes.

As I have noted here previously, Jamaica, just 13 years ago, was written off as a basket case. We are recognised today by the IMF, the World Bank, and other institutions and individiduals of international repute as a template of how, especially, small, developing and indebted economies can escape the crippling debt trap which continues to suffocate the advance of a majority of poor and middle-income countries. Jamaica can now easily pay her bills. But it took 51 years of stop-and-go before we got here.

ADVANCE OR REGRESS

Can Jamaica backslide into crippling fiscal habits which have caused us to be poorer, weaker, and less respected? Some say it is not possible because of the tight fiscal laws which have been set in place, especially, during the last 13 years. I think they are daydreaming. Laws can be amended and will be by those whose lust for high political office is stronger that their superficial love for the countries which they fight tooth and nail to lead.

The outcome of the next general election will have generational consequences for all Jamaicans. The crystal clear choice is between an unusable past and the continued modernisation of Jamaica’s roads, hospitals, courts, education system, markets, security services, public sanitary services, civil services, social services, human rights protection, Internet infrastructure, port and shipping facilities, etc. Jamaica’s present modernisation trajectory will come to a screeching and terrible halt if the present macro-economic gains are destroyed — as happened in the 1970s and again the 1990s.

Next year’s general election will make or break many careers in local representational politics, especially those contenders on the Opposition side. The PNP is morbidly fearful of losing the next general election for primarily three reasons.

First, many noted political scholars agree that for a political party to make foundational/structural and cultural shifts in the most critical ecosystems of a nation it needs a minimum of three consecutive parliamentary cycles in office. That is 15 years, given our parliamentary cycle of 5 years. The JLP will complete its second term next year. According to eminent political scholars, once an Administration concretises structural and cultural shifts, these have generational consequences, for good or bad.

Second, the PNP is mortally afraid that if it does not win the next general election it will remain in the political wilderness for several general election cycles and/or will effectively be relegated to a pressure group. Political parties exist to gain and/or retain State power. German sociologist and political economist Max Weber said so decades ago. Many in the PNP fear that the political bloodbaths, especially post the departure of former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, will reemerge and destroy their party if they lose next year.

Third, the personal political futures of Mark Golding and those who belong to his RiseUnited faction are collectively still hanging by a thread. Golding’s political hide has been spared, temporarily so, by the “decent draw” that was achieved in February’s local government elections. The PNP came out stronger than it went into that election. Golding continues to bellow that the PNP won. The JLP won. It is obvious, though, why Golding has to continue to sing the song that he won last February. Golding was also given another political lifeline when the PNP won two divisional by-elections recently.

Anyway, if, Golding does not win the next general election, like Dr Peter Phillip, his predecessor, he will have to tender his resignation with great haste. No ‘decent draw’ is possible in a parliamentary contest. The political stakes are high for the JLP, too. I will discuss those in an upcoming piece.

NO MORE STOP AND GO

At present our economy is in a very good state. The JLP’s strategy of modernisation of our roads, education system, courts, heath facilities, social institutions, public sector, country-wide high-speed Internet, etc, are all bearing considerable fruits.

What does an Opposition like the PNP, fresh out of new and/or better ideas, do? It draws for the go-to tools of populism. These are abracadabra-sounding solutions to especially long-standing and complex problems, like crime, underachievement in national education, the inadequacy of sustained economic growth; plus the populist’s trump cards, trailer-loads of promises, minus evidence of how these will be funded, distractions, fake news, personal attacks predicted on the lowest common denominator, and threats of street demonstrations.

All well-thinking Jamaicans must remain vigilant.

Garfield Higgins is an educator, journalist, and a senior advisor to the minister of education and youth. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

Prime Minister Andrew Holness (seated left) and Dangran Bi (seated right), CHEC country manager, sign an agreement to effect work under the new SPARK programme. Look on standing from left are Minister of Local Government and Community Development Desmond McKenzie, Member of Parliament for St Andrew East Rural Juliet Holness, and Member of Parliament for Manchester North Western Mikael Phillips. (Photo: Karl Mclarty)

Prime Minister Andrew Holness outlines the Government’s growth strategy at Jamaica House recently. (Photo: Garfield Robinson)