“If nothing changes, nothing changes,” was made famous by renowned novelist Courtney C Stevens. It means, if you keep doing what you’re doing, you’re going to keep getting what you’re getting. If you want change you have to make some. I believe Prime Minister Andrew Holness understands this reality.

Two Fridays ago, four important by-elections were held. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won the two parliamentary by-elections and the People’s National Party (PNP) won the two divisional by-elections. Some, for reasons that are obvious, are calling the outcomes of the four elections a 2-2 draw. Some are calling it 2-0. Some maintain that the victories by the JLP in the two constituency by-elections are far more valuable prizes than the wins of the PNP in what were formally called parish council, now dubbed municipal elections. Some are saying the PNP’s two wins are indications that the writing is on the wall for the governing JLP. Some say, the JLP’s two victories are confirmations that it is heading for a third term. And some are saying the four elections were a waste of taxpayers’ money.

Whichever position you hold, one thing is certain, change, important change, happened on that day.

The PNP, as a consequence of its two divisional wins, has been energised. Norman Manley’s party has not won a by-election in 7 years. PNP President Mark Golding can now sit a little more assuredly on his perch at 89 Old Hope Road, at least, for now. Why? The OnePNP faction will have to sheathe their swords and camouflage their combat fatigue.

Those who argue that the divisional by-elections in Morant Bay, in St Thomas, and Aenon Town in Clarendon were won by the PNP because they are traditionally political havens for the PNP can continue to do so until the cows come home. The fact is, the PNP won.

Those who submit that the JLP’s two victories were achieved because the PNP did not contest, can continue to do so until they are blue in the face. The fact is, the JLP won.

For those who might not know, our electoral system is married into a reality called first-past-the-post. Let me illustrate: In our general and municipal corporation elections, the candidate with the most votes in each constituency/division becomes the Member of Parliament (MP) for a constituency or councillor for a municipal corporation/formerly parish council. And candidates from other parties get nothing. This is how the first-past-the-post system, which we inherited from the United Kingdom, works. In the Western liberal-style democratic system political parties also occasionally win the popular vote, but lose the election.

The wins by the JLP’s Duane Smith in St Andrew North Western and Marisa Dalrymple-Philibert in Trelawny Southern would have also energised Alexander Bustamante’s party. My information is that the JLP’s supporters and other citizens in Trelawny Southern are overjoyed that “Mama D” has returned to the MP’s chair. Duane Smith has been presented with a golden opportunity to make hay while the sun shines. He will have to get a lot of work, especially road repairs, done fast. He would do will to adopt this strategy from former Prime Minister Edward Seaga: “Love the people and they will love you. Work with the people and they will work with you.”

On the matter of winning elections, recall that leading up to the 2016 General Election I said here that the JLP was playing political chess and the PNP was playing checkers. I still hold that view.

Those who are discerning would have noticed that the prime minister invited all the captains of industry, private sector heads, professional association leaders, permanent secretaries, media, and Jamaicans home and abroad, etc to what I am calling a vision-sharing session. It was held at Jamaica House recently. This was a brilliant chess move.

The fact that the PNP did not beat JLP Leader Dr Andrew Holness to a similar move again shows that PNP President Mark Golding is playing checkers.

Regarding the mentioned engagement, this newspaper reported, among other things: “Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness on Tuesday opened what he termed the next chapter of Jamaica’s economic transformation by outlining six key pillars of the Government’s growth strategy that, he said, will “move beyond plans and policies and deliver tangible results for the Jamaican people.

“Against the backdrop of a digital display driving home his message that the Administration is set on pivoting to inclusive growth, Holness told guests at the Office of the Prime Minister in St Andrew, and Jamaicans listening and watching a live stream, of his policy statement that the time for talk had passed and it is now time for action.

“ ‘As we move to the next chapter of our development journey we must now come together and forge a new national consensus on economic growth, just as we united around debt reduction and stabilisation,’ Holness said. ‘It is time for us to set ambitious goals, to think big, and to focus on policies that will enable Jamaica to realise our immense potential as a nation,’ he added.” (Jamaica Observer, November 20, 2024)

We are months away from our 19th general election. Holness knows that the robust macro-economic successes of especially the last 8 years — which have been hailed, globally, as a “miracle” — while crucial, cannot singularly bring home the bacon of a third term. He has to also show what Jamaica will look like with the JLP at the helm for another five years. Holness did a marvellous job selling that vision two Tuesdays ago. To date the PNP has not shown Jamaicans what our country will look like if it is returned to Jamaica House. Again, this shows that the PNP is playing checkers.

Holness gets it that the message of the irrefutable facts of our strong macro-economic variables is consumed in different ways by different audiences. The same message has to be tailored in different ways, according to needs, and hence, the razor-sharp, vision-sharing session held two Tuesdays ago, followed by the laser-like focus of the JLP’s 81st Annual Conference held at the National Arena last Sunday. There are many lessons in these chess moves.

On the subject of lessons, here is one that we all need to understand. Individuals, in general, care for themselves, first. Indeed, everyone wants a piece of the pie. The Democrats in the United States of America were forced to understand this important reality earlier last month in that country’s presidential election. The fact is we all want certain things; for example, lower utility costs, lower transportation costs, and some more money in our pockets. We all want to enjoy some of the finer things in life. And there is nothing wrong with that.

I have been saying in this space for many years that if folks were not seeing evidence of the robust macro-economic variables on the dinner table, and feeling it in the pocket, all would amount to naught for the JLP. A prime minister who does not understand that, “If nothing changes, nothing changes,” is as good as dead, politically.

Holness understands this reality, as evidenced in this banner headline: ‘PM rolls out goodies — Holness announces several measures to ease burden on Jamaicans in pitch for third term’. It tells me that Holness gets it.

The Jamaica Observer news item of last Monday said, among other things: “A widening of the $20,000 tax give-back programme, reduction of General Consumption Tax (GCT) on electricity, a write-off for some National Water Commission (NWC) customers, and a waiver of fees for craft vendors were among the goodies announced by Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Prime Minister Andrew Holness as he made the case on Sunday for his party to be given a third term in Government.”

This was a very smart chess move. I see that some among us have raised all kinds of specious arguments to try and, among other things, delegitimise the benefits targeted at, especially, the working and middle classes. The Minister of Finance and the Public Service Fayval Williams said on radio last Monday that the benefits announced by the prime minister will not “burst the budget”. So why are some among us snarling? The answer is simple and straightforward to me. They are some among us who believe, as we say in the rural parts, they must always “drop buff and the rest of us always drop pim”. They don’t get it that, “If nothing changes, nothing changes.”

TAKE HEED!

Incumbents are being chased out of office globally. Why? In the main, folks are saying we see others benefiting from the strong macro-economic variables and we need our share of the pie, now.

On the subject of individuals caring for themselves first, I believe JLP Chairman Robert Montague delivered a masterful presentation last Sunday. Except for the prime minister, I think Montague gave the most impactful speech.

I wonder how many people in the JLP have noticed that the loudest applause at the conference was triggered when Montague said this: “And lesson number three we must take more care of our party workers.” After he said this, the applause was so loud. Montague had to wait 9 seconds before he resumed speaking. The presentation is on
YouTube, you can check for yourself.

Montague continued: “This party, your party, intends to do just that. We are paying more attention now to our party workers. We are creating more opportunities for them.” The overwhelming endorsement by the conference attendees to Montague’s reassurance should not be missed by the highest levels of the JLP’s hierarchy. The JLP has had a long-standing weakness of forgetting the politics when it is at Jamaica House. This is a major flaw.

Here is another major flaw in our politics. Four years ago, I said, among other things, in this space: “Those in the PNP, JLP, and elsewhere, who treat academic degrees as badges of superiority would do well to take a bit of advice from British statesman, diplomat, and writer Philip Dormer Stanhope: “Wear your learning like your watch in a private pocket, and do not pull it out and strike it merely to show you have one. If you are asked what o’clock it is, tell it, but do not proclaim it hourly and unasked like the watchman.”

They need to also be mindful of another reality. We are in a new political era. Folks are mightily concerned about performance that has a positive impact on their pockets, dinner tables, and long-term development. On April 21, 2019, I noted, among other things, here: “Braggadocio is not a political strategy. All who aspire to enter representational politics would do well to understand this simple fact. Constantly telling folks that you have degrees to match a thermometer and attended Heaven’s University do not impress them when many do not have indoor plumbing, decent roads, and other basic amenities.” I said this against the background of the run-up to the by-election in Portland Eastern.

Recall, The Gleaner of March 4, 2019, reported: “If you look at potential, the furthest this lady will go is Mrs Vaz. If you look at potential, how far can I go and how [far] will you come with me?” Crawford stated, also declaring that, “If this lady beat me, it will be a travesty!”

On December 5, 2020 I said, among things things, in this space: “Enough of the darn ‘frighten Fridays’ in our politics who use it as a means of satisfying their status deficits! Enough of the ‘never see come see dem’ who get absorbed by the trappings of State office and forget their obligations to the people! We sure do not need any more political leaders who use their political appointments as mere crutches of convenience.”

I do not recoil from these statements. The JLP and PNP need to take heed!

Garfield Higgins is aneducator, journalist, and a senior advisor to the minister of education and youth. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.