Armed with major discounts, local retailers are cautiously hopeful for increased sales for the Black Friday and Christmas shopping season, even as they face stiff competition from online stores, inflation concerns and challenges at the ports.

“I am hopeful, but the spending patterns this year have been very erratic,” Michael Ammar Jr, director of the Ammar’s chain of fashion stores, told the Jamaica Observer.

Anthony Pearson, the proprietor of Lloyd’s Department Store in Montego Bay, expressed a similar sentiment.

“Well, we’re cautiously optimistic, Christmas is not what it used to be,” Pearson said.

And while SuperPlus Food Stores supermarket chain Chairman Wayne Chen is expecting an uptick in the Yuletide season, he says “it will be fairly muted because Jamaica, like many other places in the world, has seen an escalation in food prices over the last couple of years.”

Indeed, results of a recent unscientific Observer online poll on anticipated holiday spend paint a daunting picture. More than half or 54 per cent of the 985 respondents said they expect to spend less this Yuletide season compared to last year, while 17 per cent anticipated that they will spend more. A similar 17 per cent said it was too early to tell and 12 per cent expected to spend around the same.

However, despite their concerns, the various merchants are steadily prepping for the season with the hope that Jamaicans will find favour with their selections.

“We are still going above and beyond, some people are going to do well this Christmas, so it may as well be us,” Ammar said, adding, “We are [trying hard] to source merchandise that you can’t buy online at a cheaper price. I am very pleased with our selection for Christmas. I am very optimistic that our customers will also be pleased with it.”

A common complaint from the retailers was that online shopping is taking a chunk of their customer base, especially with the introduction of the US$100 ‘no-tax’ threshold for consumers importing goods, which does not necessarily apply to retailers’ items. Pearson broke it down.

“The ease of online purchasing and the fact that there are no duties for a certain amount [means] persons are just paying shipping, where we have to pay heavy duties to bring in our merchandise,” Pearson, who has been operating the business since 1965, said.

While grocery stores aren’t affected by the increased duty exemption threshold as badly, Chen says there’s been a noticeable shift in “items that you would normally buy in a grocery store, like household appliances.” He says that business is now going to online retailers.

Another speed bump slowing down hopes of a successful season is clearance time at the country’s ports.

“The ports are very slow in processing containers at this point — I mean, I had items for Christmas that should have been here, you know, three, four weeks ago. And they keep being deferred. I don’t know exactly when I’m going to get them,” explained Kamaal Azan, general manager of Azan Supercentre, a popular store for household and gift items.

He said that due to the sheer number of in-transit items coming through the ports and slow clearance, some ships decide to bypass Jamaican ports and come back after completing other routes, causing delays for local merchants.

However, retailers who spoke to Observer Online were divided on exactly how shipping would affect prices locally.

Azan said, “We have a high rate of inflation and so everything has gone up. Freight costs from the shipping companies have gone up to almost US$8,000 a container from China, and that obviously affects the price of the landed cost of the goods. So these are all charges that makes it very difficult to predict.”

Ammar gave a more optimistic outlook.

“Many of the items made [outside] the US, the prices are either the same or down a little. The prices [in] the US are either the same or up a little. I mean marginally up, maybe two or three per cent. The freight from China and stuff used to be US$10,000 last year. Now it’s down to US$3,000, and the same from the States and other places, it’s helping with the price,” he said.

Despite what they might pay for freight, all the retailers Observer Online spoke with expressed a desire to keep costs down for customers, even if it means cutting into profit margins.

“We are pricing a lot tighter, we are not using the markup we should be using, we are [doing] a lot to try and make our prices super competitive,” Ammar indicated.

“We try to buy for the best prices to be able to pass on discount savings to the consumers. I’m doing my best to keep prices low, for sure because, I mean, when the goods come in and they sit in my store, it’s a problem,” Azan reiterated.

Pearson says the consumer will benefit from the tough market even with raised freight costs.

“Because of the economy, the intense competition, even though the prices at stores may be a little higher, we are somewhat forced to maintain prices because the competition is stiff. There are lots of goods out there, so you have to basically cut your margins to stay alive,” he said.

In this vein, they’re promising very competitive discounts for customers, on Black Friday especially.

“We’re hoping that people will have a little extra spending power this year. In terms of the merchandise and prices, we’ll be more than ready,” Pearson said.

Ammar, whose Kingston-based family-owned business has been operating for about 64 years, was quick on his heels with talk of savings.

“Black Friday, I am hopefully optimistic about because we are really coming hard and people are going to be able to get some great, great buys on their Christmas shopping. And we actually have early birds Black Friday weekend, where on the Friday and Saturday, come in between eight and 10, you get an additional 10 per cent,” he said.

Chen summarised what the 2024 Christmas season is shaping up to be for consumers and retailers.

“We expect to have a good Christmas, not spectacular,” he said.