US could elect first woman president in today’s polls
Today, the world’s most powerful and enduring democracy, the United States, will once more test its resilience as Americans go to the polls after a tumultuous presidential election campaign that could still smash political traditions and provide the country’s first woman president in Mrs Kamala Harris.
At the same time, only a brave few would bet against her Republican opponent, the former President Donald Trump, who is seeking an unlikely political comeback, even as he awaits sentencing on a 34-felony conviction for fraud and the outcome of several other court cases, including for attempting to overturn the 2020 elections which he lost.
As with nearly all other opinion polls during the truncated campaign, the highly credible final New York Times/Siena College polls released Sunday showed the race a virtual dead heat.
Mrs Harris is clearly favoured in states that account for 226 electoral votes, while Mr Trump seems to have 219 locked up, with each vying to reach the magic number of 270 first to grasp the presidency.
Americans, unlike most other countries, vote for electors in a complex system called the electoral college which then votes for the president, instead of awarding the presidency based on the popular vote nationwide.
The New York Times said Mrs Harris, who is of Jamaican heritage, will likely need at least 44 combined electoral college votes from the seven battleground states where American elections are said to be won or lost. Mr Trump will likely need 51.
“But surprises remain possible. A highly regarded Iowa poll, for example, shocked many political analysts over the weekend by showing Harris ahead there — a potential sign of her strength with white voters. Alaska is another state where she has a small chance for a big upset.
“Trump could pull off his own surprises in New Mexico or New Hampshire,” the paper said Monday.
The voters will also elect a slew of senators and members of the House of Representatives whose terms have expired. Based on poll results, Republicans are favourites to retake Senate control, while control of the House is a toss-up.
In addition, there are six voter referendums to be settled, with the most volatile being abortion rights in 10 states where voters are being asked to decide if the procedure should be allowed until foetal viability.
The abortion issue has galvanised women voters and is credited with Mrs Harris leading the gender battle by almost two to one, as indicated by the early votes in nearly all states, except Nevada, at press time.
Of interest to Jamaicans is that legalisation of marijuana will also be on the ballot in three states — Florida, North Dakota, and South Dakota — while Nebraskans will vote on whether to legalise recreational marijuana.
It is widely believed that if Mrs Harris wins the presidency that would be due to the women’s vote. She has promised that as president she would restore the law called Roe V Wade, which allowed nationwide abortion rights for 50 years up to 2022.
Pundits have suggested that women are also excited by the prospect of a member of their gender being president of the United States for the first time in the 248-year history of the country.
Mr Trump has painted his opponent as “dumb” and “radical”, while she has urged Americans to “turn the page on the past”.
May the better candidate win.