NFL Week 3: Separating contenders from pretenders
The 2024/25 National Football League (NFL) season is only two weeks old, but it almost feels like we’re already halfway through the regular season, based on everything that has transpired thus far. Some shocking results and upsets, particularly in Week 2, and some jaw-dropping performances, have helped in providing a wholesome feel to the young season.
Of the 16 games played in Week 2, nine of the JustBet underdogs emerged victorious, including those with the largest odds offered, the Las Vegas Raiders (4.37), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.90), New Orleans Saints (3.27) and Minnesota Vikings (2.68), who were victorious over the Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, and San Francisco 49ers, respectively. The New Orleans 44-19 beatdown over the lauded defence of Dallas was specifically outstanding and they became the league’s scoring leader, having beaten the lowly Carolina Panthers 47-10 in Week 1. The Saints scored touchdowns on their first six drives of the game and broke the 16-game streak of wins for the Cowboys in AT&T Stadium.
Now, heading into Week 3, there are nine teams with a 2-0 record and nine teams at 0-2 and, while it is way too early to determine the outcome of the season, history is not on the side of the 0-2 teams. Only a very small number of teams that have started the season 0-2 eventually made the play-offs, even since 2020 when the NFL expanded to a 14-team play-off field, and in 2021 when the regular season schedule was expanded from 16 to 17 games.
The 17-game schedule, plus an extra play-off berth, should theoretically make it easier for teams that have a sluggish start to make up ground and get to the postseason but, over the past three seasons, 21 teams have opened the season 0-2, and only two eventually made the play-offs. In 2020 and 2021, 11 and seven teams, respectively, started the season 0-2 and none of them appeared in the play-offs. In 2022, five teams started 0-2 and only the Cincinnati Bengals made the play-offs, then last season, eight teams had the same start, and the Houston Texans were the only team from those to extend past the regular season. Conversely, in 2022, all five 2-0 teams made the play-offs and in 2023, six of eight 2-0 teams advanced to the postseason.
For better context, prior to 2020, the NFL adopted a 12-team play-off format in 1990 and between then and 2019, 242 teams started the season 0-2, with only 29 making the play-offs, just under 12 per cent. However, while teams like the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos and New York Giants were expected to have this deflating record, ranked contenders like the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals boast a high enough pedigree to render this record surprising. And while 0-2 is certainly not a ‘death sentence’, since 1990, only four teams have made the postseason after starting 0-3; therefore, Week 3 is going to be critical for the 0-2 ‘contenders’ to confirm they are not pretenders.
The Ravens (0-2) visit AT&T Stadium on Sunday afternoon to tackle the Cowboys (1-1), who were run over by the Saints last weekend. They opened the season with an acceptable loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, which was decided by a fraction of an inch on the last play of the game but surrendered a 10-point lead last Sunday to the Las Vegas Raiders, which is far less forgiveable. The Baltimore defence allowed three scoring drives in a row in the fourth quarter, while the Raiders defence limited the reigning Most Valuable Player (MVP), quarterback (QB) Lamar Jackson, to two back-to-back three-and-outs.
Prior to this year, Jackson had never started a season 0-2, and the Ravens are now 8-2 in the first two weeks of the season with him under centre. Additionally, the Ravens had not lost two games in a row since 2020 but based on the considerable departure of talent in the off-season, maybe it should have been expected.
Truth be told, the Ravens narrowly lost both games, and the MVP is still a dangerous threat, on the ground or in the air, rushing for 167 yards in two games, and throwing for a another 520. Off-season signing Derrick Henry has scored a rushing touchdown in each game and will mitigate the pressure on Jackson to win games on his own, plus the Baltimore locker room is too talented not to make the play-offs, and they visit a Dallas team this weekend that had their soul removed by the Saints. This game could be interesting, but if the combination of Jackson and Henry can waltz through the defence the way Alvin Kamara (115 rushing yards, three touchdowns) did last Sunday, this could be over early, but is a must-win for the slight JustBet favourite Ravens if they hope to be considered as contenders.
The Bengals (0-2) are in very familiar territory, having started in this position for the third-straight season and the fifth time in the last six seasons. They made the play-offs in 2022 after finishing 12-4, but failed to advance last season after finishing 9-8, with QB Joe Burrow missing seven games due to injuries. Cincinnati opened the season with an ugly 10-16 loss to the ordinary New England Patriots but were one fourth down stop away from defeating the reigning champions, Kansas City, last weekend. They now have the Washington Commanders (1-1) to contend with on Monday night.
The main receiving core of Tee Higgins (injured) and Ja’Marr Chase are embroiled in contract disputes with the Bengals organisation, and Chase has not contributed much on the field, but the passing offence still looked efficient in the first two games. Along with this week’s opponent, the Bengals have a very easy schedule for the next few weeks and should make a good run to get their season on track. They are favoured to beat the Commanders, then the lowly Carolina Panthers, before a tough road trip to Baltimore, then host the struggling New York Giants.
Cincinnati should win at least three of those games and are optimistic that both Higgins and Chase will get things together by the end of this run. As long as Burrow remains healthy, there is no reason for the Bengals not to firmly establish themselves in the boots of contenders. That said, there are also a few 2-0 teams that are definitely pretenders (the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks come readily to mind), but that is a story for a different time. Are you ready for some football?
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Super Bowl LIX Champion – February 9, 2025
TEAMS ODDS
Kansas City Chiefs 5.40
San Francisco 49ers 5.80
Philadelphia Eagles 10.00
Detroit Lions 10.00
Baltimore Ravens 12.00
Houston Texans 13.00
Buffalo Bills 14.00
Dallas Cowboys 14.00
Cincinnati Bengals 19.00
New York Jets 19.00
*Only Top 10 odds are shown (see website for full list)
Note: Odds are subject to change