The 2023/24 National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals series got underway last night (June 6) with a matchup filled with compelling headlines, sidelines, and bylines. The Boston Celtics, the winningest NBA team this season, confronts the Dallas Mavericks, who emerged from a contentious Western Conference that was hard to predict from the first whistle of the postseason. And now either Boston or Dallas will be the NBA’s sixth new champion in a span of six seasons.

The Celtics were certainly expected to be here, having led the league with a 64-18 record (37-4 at home), then were basically on cruise-control through the Eastern Conference playoffs, with a 12-2 record, en route to their second finals appearance in three years. They are hoping to become the first team since the 2016/17 Golden State Warriors to have the league’s best regular season record and win the finals in the same season.

The Mavericks did not automatically have the same expectations as their opponent, after missing the play-offs last season and finishing this regular season at the fifth spot in the Western Conference, with a 50-32 record. They managed to beat three 50-win teams in the Western Conference play-offs and get to the finals for the third time in their history. The following were dispatched on their play-off journey to this point: the Los Angeles Clippers (51-31), Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) and Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26), who finished the regular season seeded fourth, first, and third, respectively, in the conference.

Dallas took a longer path to the finals, losing five of the 17 games played, but the competition faced was more formidable than the ones encountered by Boston (Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers), who didn’t face a 50-win team and didn’t have to battle the standout players on the teams for most of the play-off games: Jimmy Butler didn’t play in the series for Miami, they lost 1-4, Donavon Mitchell didn’t play the last two games of the series for Cleveland, they also lost 1-4, and Tyrese Haliburton was not available for Indiana in the last two games of the sweep in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Mavericks, after a dominant 124-103 victory over the Timberwolves in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals last Thursday (May 30), winning the series 4-1, booked their first finals berth since 2011, when the Dirk Nowitzki-led team defeated the LeBron James-led Miami team for the only title in Mavericks’ franchise history. That victory meant they had overcome the league’s top-ranked defence three times in nine days, and the 21-point margin doesn’t truly reflect the dominance of their performance, led by 36 points each from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

Not surprisingly, the Celtics are favoured by JustBet to win the series and claim a record 18th hold on the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy — they are currently tied for the record with the Los Angeles Lakers. They have looked the part all season and now they are knocking on the door of their first championship since 2008. The Celtics have overcome a significant hurdle, having reached the conference finals in six of the last eight years (including 2024), but this is just their second finals appearance during that span.

Boston has a much deeper roster than Dallas but there is an argument to be made as to which team has the best player. Doncic finished third in the Most Valuable Player (MVP) votes in the just concluded regular season — behind winner Nikola Jokic and runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — but won Western Conference Finals MVP after averaging 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game.

He averaged almost a triple-double in the play-offs overall, tallying 28.8 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game, leading up to the final series.

Doncic, this season’s scoring champion (2,370 points), is anchored by an extremely capable running-mate in Irving, who scored 27 points per game in the conference finals, including a 36-point performance in the Game 5 decider. In his previous three finals appearances (all with the Cavaliers), Irving averaged 27.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists, and appears to be syncing with Doncic at the perfect time for the biggest stage in basketball.

The Mavericks have thrived in the underdog role all play-offs, and they’ve won seven of their nine road games heading into the finals, but the Celtics have the homecourt advantage throughout the series and have won seven-straight coming in. Interestingly, Dallas started each play-off series on the road and earned at least a split of the first two games in each round. Can they do the same against Boston?

If the Mavericks pull off the upset series win, they would be just the second team to win a title as a No 5 seed or lower. The Houston Rockets won the second of their back-to-back championships as the No 6 seed in the Western Conference in 1995 and they are the only franchise to ever win the finals as a No 5 seed or lower.

For historical reference, from 2018 through 2023, the Celtics played 16 play-off series and 10 of them went six or more games, while four of the Mavericks’ last six play-off series have gone six or seven games, including two of their three series this season. The shortest series for them this year was the five-game triumph over the Timberwolves in the conference finals.

Boston’s last 13 NBA Finals have all gone six or more games. The last time they played five or fewer games in a finals was the 1965 series, which they won 4-1 over the Los Angeles Lakers. The last 10 NBA Finals have included one sweep, three five-game series, five six-game series and one seven-game series. There has been a Game 7 in just three of the last 18 NBA Finals, and the home teams are 2-1 in those situations.

This series is too close to call, but it promises to be compelling. Boston is favoured for obvious reasons, but Dallas has put in the postseason work to get here. All statistics leading up to this have very little bearing and it is left to be seen which team wants the title more.

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NBA 2023/24 Champion

Team Odds

Boston Celtics 1.46

Dallas Mavericks 2.75

Note: Odds are subject to change