NBA: 2023/24 season, a scoring frenzy
The 2023/24 National Basketball Association (NBA) season has produced a scoring frenzy that is higher than it has ever been in the last 50 years, and last weekend’s record setting achievements — in both the college and professional ranks — is a strong indication that this is not going to change anytime soon (unless the NBA’s Competition Committee finds a way to tilt the balance away from this free-scoring fever).
Firstly, let’s get the scoring records out of the way: LeBron James, in a 114-124 loss to the defending NBA champions the Denver Nuggets last Saturday night, became the first NBA player to register 40,000 points.
In February 2023, the 39-year-old eclipsed the previous record of 38,387 NBA-career points, held by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, which had stood since 1989, and he is making every effort to immortalise that record.
All things considered, LeBron may play two more seasons (or three), and if he averages over 20 points per game over that stretch, he could easily reach 44,000 or 45,000 by the time he’s ready to hang up his Nikes. With only seven other active players with more than 20,000 points (Kevin Durrant at 35 years old being the closest to James), the possibility of anyone breaking this record anytime soon is next to impossible.
The infectious scoring bug has also manifested itself on the college scene and Caitlin Clark has proven that she is far from immune. The 22-year-old guard, who plays for the University of Iowa, became the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA) Division I all-time scoring leader last Sunday, after surpassing the previous record of 3,667 points set by former Louisiana State University star “Pistol” Pete Maravich, 54 years ago.
Clarke, who put up 35 points on her record-breaking Sunday, became the NCAA Division I women’s basketball all-time leading scorer just two weeks prior, breaking Kelsey Plum’s record of 3,527 points. Clark recently announced that this season will be her last in college as she will forgo her extra year of eligibility to declare for the Women’s NBA Draft.
In the NBA this season, the statistics have made it abundantly clear that scoring has taken an upward trend. Teams are averaging over 115 points per game — the highest since the 1969/70 season — and an average of 12.8 three-pointers are scored per game, the highest in league history.
Overall, field goal percentage is .475, higher than in any season since 1989/90, even though a much higher proportion of shots this season are from outside the three-point arc (sometimes way beyond). Teams only attempted a combined 6.6 three-pointers per game in 1989/90, compared to 35.0 per game this season.
Obviously, the high propensity of launching shots from distance has significantly impacted the statistics, but the fact that defenders need to focus on shooters as soon as they pass half-court, also makes for easier two-point shots in and around the key. From the 2012/13 to the 2021/22 season, the NBA’s field goal percentage ranged between .449 and .466. Last season, it grew to .475 and the trend has continued into the current season.
The most vivid illustration of this scoring explosion has been the prevalence of jaw-dropping individual scoring performances this season. There have been six games where players have scored 60 points or more, the third most of any season in NBA history, and there are still a few weeks remaining.
The only two seasons above the current were 1961/62 and 1962/63, when Wilt Chamberlain was padding the stat sheets with high percentage makes at the rim.
Additionally, there have been 125, 40-point games this season, which is on pace to be the second-most in NBA history, behind last season where there were 203 such games. For reference, the previous record of 142 was set in the 1961/62 season when Wilt-the Stilt was roaming the paint.
The league-leading Boston Celtics, in particular, who were enjoying an 11-game win streak prior to them surrendering a 22-point lead in a 104-105 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday night, have been exhibiting a 61 per cent shooting average all season.
Their average margin of victory during the streak was 22.1 points, the highest ever during a win streak of at least 10 games. And, following a 52-point demolition of the Golden State Warriors last Sunday (the third-biggest win in Boston franchise history), the Celtics became the first team in NBA-history to win three games in a single season by 50+ points.
The Celtics own the NBA’s best offensive rating at 121.7 (1.6 points better than the second-place Indiana Pacers) and have the second-best defensive rating at 110.2, trailing only the Minnesota Timberwolves at 108. They are on pace to win 66 games this season, a feat they haven’t achieved since the 2007/08 season when the trio of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen formed the core of their locker room, and took home Boston’s 17th banner, at the expense of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Maybe last month’s absurd All-Star game, with its record-breaking total score (211-186), was a microcosm of the league’s offensive mindset. Maybe, just like the All-Star game, defence is laxing while offence is flexing. Maybe things will balance themselves out or maybe the NBA will find some innovative ways to intervene, but come what may, there are 24 games slated for this weekend — eight tonight, seven on Saturday and nine on Sunday — and each is ripe with the promise of adding to the scoring hysteria that has become so commonplace in the league.
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NBA 2023/24 Champion
Team Odds
Boston Celtics 3.30
Denver Nuggets 5,40
Los Angeles Clippers 6.00
Milwaukee Bucks 8.00
Phoenix Suns 17.00
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.00
Minnesota Timberwolves 24.00
Cleveland Cavaliers 28.00
New York Knicks 28.00
Philadelphia 76ers 29.00
*Only Top 10 odds shown (see website for full list)
Note: Odds are subject to change