An intriguing preliminary to next year’s big dance
The proof of the pudding is always in the eating.
So that with the attention-grabbing opinion polls, including the most recent Don Anderson version indicating a statistical dead heat out of the way, it all comes down to the actual local government elections today.
Prime Minister Andrew Holness has argued that results of these municipal polls should not be viewed as a referendum on the performance of his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Government.
The reality, though, is that it feels like a referendum largely because the all-important parliamentary general election is constitutionally due in less than 18 months.
It means that after its massive 49-14 seat triumph in the parliamentary election of 2020, the ruling party will want to at least come close to the majority it secured in the 2016 municipal poll, to bolster confidence ahead of next year.
In 2016, the JLP took control of the majority of municipalities, including much-prized Kingston and St Andrew. Crucially in the divisional seat count, the JLP — which had earlier won the parliamentary election by just one seat — gained a 130-98 majority.
The Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) will need to make gains in order to convince itself and Jamaicans that it is building momentum ahead of the big dance next year.
Failure to do so would be bad news for PNP president and Opposition Leader Mr Mark Golding, who polls suggest continue to trail the prime minister in personal popularity.
Intriguingly, 41 per cent of about 40,000 election workers, police, soldiers, eligible to vote of are said to have done so in last Thursday’s designated polling day for that category.
Taken to its logical conclusion, that figure could indicate that, with two million people eligible for today’s poll, turnout could exceed the 30 per cent of nearly eight years ago.
Indeed, the turnout last Thursday exceeds the 37 per cent voter turnout in the parliamentary election of 2020 which the JLP won so overwhelmingly.
Crucially, no amount of pre-election hype is ever likely to supplant logistical methodology on the day. The party that shows greater efficiency in getting its supporters to polling stations usually wins.
Today, many will simply ride party loyalties and hype with an eye to next year.
However, we believe voters should bear in mind the issues that affect them at the local level, which is what municipal elections ought really to be about.
For that reason, we are very disappointed at the approach to outlining plans/policies for critical public perusal.
The PNP published its manifesto last Thursday, just three days ahead of today’s poll. That’s obviously not good enough, but better than none at all.
Word came that the JLP published its policy document on Saturday. This, we believe, is shameful. Responsible democracy demands such publications be made well in advance of the polls so that the electorate may truly make informed decisions.
It seems to us that with next year’s parliamentary election in mind, civil society, media, and those with influence at all levels should make it very clear to our political leaders that such disrespect must not be repeated.
Finally, we encourage each person to be respectful of others and show good order as they visit polling stations today to exercise their democratic right.