“New commercial and high-end condominiums are rising from the dirt, the minimum wage is going up, unemployment is the lowest it’s been in years and tourism — the engine of the economy — is once more booming.

“After years of being hobbled by crippling debt, double-digit deficits and negative growth, Jamaica is showing its ability to weather crises — and its hard-won economic stability is getting noticed along with the leadership of its prime minister.” (Miami Herald, June 28, 2023)

“Jamaica’s stable Government and economy, along with its location, physical infrastructure, talent pool, and economic framework, read like a wish list for global supply chain managers. Jamaica was ranked 6th Easiest Place to Do Business globally by the World Bank (2019); named the Best Caribbean Nation for Doing Business by Forbes (2019)… In the last decade, business confidence in the country has increased annually by 24.1 points. (Yahoo News, June 23, 2023)

“World Bank President Ajay Banga has high praises for Jamaica’s current economic health.

” ‘Your country has managed your macro situation very well… It is not the same for many developing countries, which took on a great deal of debt when interest rates were low.’

“His historic trip marks the first time that the head of the world’s largest lending institution is visiting Jamaica.” (The Gleaner, June 14, 2023)

“After a nasty COVID setback, Jamaica is back on track for the most miraculous economic turnaround story of the decade [century?]…

“This was echoed by the IMF’s [International Monetary Fund] board, which reviewed the fund’s recent Article 4 report on Jamaica: ‘Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended the authorities’ strong track record of building institutions and prioritising macroeconomic stability, which together with a nimble and prudent policy response helped Jamaica navigate successfully the pandemic and other recent global shocks.’

“This is as close as the IMF comes to a standing ovation.” (Financial Times, February 10, 2023)

Never in its history has Jamaica garnered such praise from abroad about its economic governance. Some cynics will wonder if all these plaudits are deserved. Might it all not be a grand orchestrated public relations effort from neo-liberal institutions like the World Bank, IMF, and IDB [Inter-American Development Bank] to make its new poster child, Jamaica, look good, so as to convince other Third World countries that their recommendations and policies really do work? Do the numbers really warrant such fulsome words?

Well the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) chart speaks for itself. Jamaica’s current 78 per cent debt-to-GDP ratio is the lowest since the financial disaster of the 1990s. Bringing it down from a high of over 140 per cent in 2012 would have been a Herculean feat even in the best of times. To have done so during the unprecedented pandemic might indeed justify the Financial Times gushing ‘miraculous economic turnaround’. Yes, Andrew Holness and Nigel Clarke deserve a lot of credit, but we cannot forget that Portia Simpson Miller and Peter Phillips began the heavy lifting.

Now, cutting debt often requires ruthless measures that exacerbate the hardships faced by a country’s most vulnerable. Yet, remarkably, Jamaican poverty levels have declined along with the debt. They were on track to hit the lowest recorded level ever, until COVID hit in 2019 and caused a sharp rise. But in the IMF’s words “a nimble and prudent policy response” has seen poverty levels again continue to fall. The World Bank estimates Jamaica’s poverty rate declined from 23 per cent in 2020 to 12.6 per cent in 2022. Which is not far above the record low of 9.9 per cent in 2007, and well below the 24.6 per cent of 10 years ago in 2013. (https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/jamaica/overview)

Nostalgic old-timers often reminisce about the ‘wonderful’ economic management of the 1960s, when Jamaica sometimes achieved GDP growth rates of over 10 per cent. But were the good-old days as good as some claim? And, conversely, was the economy managed as badly in the 1970s as legend has it?

We must look at Jamaica’s key economic indicators over the extended period — unemployment, inflation and GDP growth rates in every election year since 1962, as well as the latest rates available as of June 2023. The online version of this piece supplies a series of charts with data comes from the World Bank and Statin)

The numbers say Jamaica’s best managed economy since 1962 is the current 2023 Andrew Holness Administration. The 1980 Michael Manley and 1983 Edward Seaga regimes are tied for the worst.

There will always be controversy about who should get credit for what. Some leaders reap the benefit of good policies implemented by predecessors. Others inherit disasters not of their own making. But if those in power get the blame when things go wrong, then they deserve the praise when things go right.

Raw figures ignore factors like immigration shifts, oil shocks, cold war disturbances, aluminium market collapses, debt, foreign aid, natural disasters, health pandemics, criminal deportations, drug gang wars, and financial crises. But though numbers alone can never tell the whole story, they do speak without political bias.

Those who do not like what the numbers are saying, often fall back on old canards, like “Lies, damn lies and statistics”. But as the rejoinder goes: “It may be easy to lie with numbers, but it’s much easier to lie without them.”

Kevin O’Brien Chang is an entrepreneur and public commentator. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or kob.chang@fontanapharmacy.com.