Standing ovation
THE executive board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given Jamaica what is tantamount to a standing ovation for the management of the economy, just days after its staff released comments from its Article IV consultation, saying “the economy is now recovering strongly” despite being buffeted by a difficult global environment.
“Executive directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal,” the executive board said in a release Friday. “They , which together with a nimble and prudent policy response helped Jamaica navigate successfully the pandemic and other recent global shocks.”
Those recent shocks include COVID, the war in Ukraine, and the ongoing tightening of global financial conditions.
“This is as close as the IMF comes to a standing ovation,” the Financial Times, a UK-based newspaper, wrote on Friday in response to the IMF’s executive board’s assessment.
Marla Dukharan, a Trinidad-based economist, echoed the sentiments.
“Jamaica really has displayed the most robust socio-economic progress for the past decade in the Caribbean,” Dukharan wrote on Twitter Friday.
Finance Minister Dr Nigel Clarke, wallowing in the report and the international attention it has received, not only tweeted its content, but also shared it personally with journalists, reserving comments, but prefering to let the report speak for itself.
But even with the praise, as with these releases, there is also a caution.
“Directors noted that the continued recovery faces elevated uncertainty and risks from higher commodity prices, tighter-than-envisaged global financial conditions, new COVID outbreaks, and natural disasters,” it said.
Moving forward, the IMF’s executive board pressed Jamaica on maintaining the planned path of primary balance to ensure continued debt reduction coupled with continued data-dependent, monetary policy tightening. Jamaica’s debt-to-GDP ratio which peaked close to 150 per cent in 2012, has since declined to about 86 per cent at the end of last year, through prudent management across two political administrations. The IMF predicts it will fall to about 77.9 per cent at the end of the next fiscal year, which, while still high, is roughly half of what it was just a decade ago.
But even as growth continues — the IMF expects 2022 growth to come out at about 4.0 per cent after declining by over 10 per cent two years ago — Jamaica was pressed to take steps to accelerate the growth, much of which is really recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn.
“Directors encouraged a multi-pronged approach to overcome constraints to growth. They stressed the need to strengthen education and training, upgrade infrastructure, digitalisation of government services, reduce crime and barriers to trade. Social inclusion will benefit from the strengthened cash transfer programme,” the IMF directors said.
“Directors encouraged reforms alleviating climate change challenges and long-term vulnerabilities. These reforms should strengthen physical and fiscal resilience, incentivise renewable energy generation, reduce energy consumption, develop markets for “green” financial instruments, and ensure proper recognition and management of climate risks.”
The IMF board said reduced climate vulnerability would help catalyse private sector financing for climate-related investments.
“Directors looked forward to continued and enhanced collaboration with other international organisations to support these efforts,” it concluded.