THE demographic changes we are experiencing do not come without implications. There are several components of the social implications of an aging population, and policies should be put in place from now to meet the needs and demands of the ageing population in the next couple of years.

The child population (14 and under) is shrinking, and the retired population (over 64 years) is growing. Part of the social implications of the change has to do with the capacity of social services to respond not only to senior citizens but also to the effects that can occur in the education system.

In 2015 Ronald Thwaites, then the minister of education, announced closure of approximately 18 primary schools that were suffering from insufficient population. By the 2016 fiscal year, the Ministry of Education (MOE) was on a journey to rationalise 168 basic schools. Rationalisation refers to the merging of the basic schools as well as subsuming some basic schools into infant departments of primary schools.

In the 2012/2013 school year the MOE in its Directory of Educational Institution reported a total of 595 primary, 111 all-age, and 86 primary and junior high public education institutions. However, by the 2018/2019 school year the total numbers were 585 primary (down by 10), 97 all-age schools (down by 14), and 78 primary and junior high schools (down by 8).

The declines in the number of spaces for education is consistent with the gradual decrease in the population of children in Jamaica.

Easton Williams, senior director for social policy planning and research at the PlOJ, who was interviewed just ahead of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020 said, “The primary school in which I grew up in Marlborough in St Mary, that population had over maybe 300 students, and now you go it’s probably around 100 students.” When contacted in June 2022, the school reported that it had a population of 56 students.

The closing and merging of schools, just like any other place of work, disrupts the workspace. Positions may become redundant as well as people may be required to find new places of employment.

You may be wondering why we hear of schools that have over 40 students in a classroom. Well, this is largely due to movements of the population as it relates to internal migration; that is, people moving from rural communities to urban communities, and that itself puts pressure on those schools that are in urban centres. Census data show that between the years 2001 and 2011, St Catherine and St Andrew — the location of Jamaica’s largest urban areas — experienced the largest numerical change in the population during the period. St Catherine had a numerical change of 33,910 individuals and St Andrew had a change of 17,541 people. St James, home of Montego Bay, had the third-highest numerical change of 8,684 people.

These are just some realities of the changes that are seen in Jamaica as it relates to education. But how the country responds, in terms of usage of these buildings that were once filled with children, is important.

Another aspect of the social implications of an ageing population is in regard to health. An ageing population would imply that the needs of the population will change. Williams explained that there has been a depletion in the population in most rural communities and most of the rural areas are filled predominantly with older folks. It is vital that Jamaica accounts for the decline in the population we see in our rural areas so as not waste resources. He said, “We have to look seriously at how we manage and make things such as clinics viable in these areas and institute other mechanism such as a moving clinic to support smaller population in those areas.”

“By 2050 we will easily have half a million persons aged 60 and over,” said Williams at the PIOJ. With the growing population of citizens of retired age this would call for health-care reforms, specifically primary and secondary health care. Primary health care refers to comprehensive and general care to patients, while secondary health care comes from a specialist, such as a gynaecologist, ophthalmologist, and cardiologist.

It was emphasised that Jamaica’s health-care capacities must be able to respond to the number of peole who are living longer, and those living with non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) showed than in 2010, cancer, diabetes, diseases from the circulatory system, and chronic lower respiratory diseases accounted for 70 per cent of deaths in Jamaica, more than two-thirds of which were people over the age of 70 . In 2016, 12,577 people died from NCDs when compared to 10,344 in 2010. The Ministry of Health’s Primary Health Care Reform for Jamaica 2021-2030 report outlined that it intends to make changes that would improve early detection and management of diseases such as NCDs, which are also becoming more prevalent in children.

There are also social implications in the economic sphere. “So we need an environment that can be traversed and utilised by person, in a way that the economy can thrive,” commented Williams.

The shift in the age structure will bring about a shift in the demands for good and services in our population. This shift may be towards good and services that are closely linked to the retired population. Things such as retirement homes, cleaning services, ease of mobility, and transportation are some examples of possible markets/businesses that may expand.

Meeting the demands for different types of foods and different types of lifestyles will be crucial. Williams explained that having a population that is older is not just about poverty-stricken individuals, you will also have families and individuals who are interested in recreational services that cater to their needs and can accommodate them.

Wayne Henry, the director general of the PIOJ highlighted that older people, who are living in cold countries, may find it better to reside in a warmer climate such as ours. This can have positive effects in terms of foreign exchange.

Older people are normally assumed to be a burden to society; however, Henry emphasised that older people have institutional memory of processes in both public and private sectors and so can continue to be contributors to the economy, possibly in an advisory capacity.

In an environment of an ageing population, with the constant changes and advancements in technology, Jamaica has to consider the impacts that this can have on the economy and productivity. But Clarke said, “We have to think about the role that technology will play to make us even more productive and the reason why our demographic transition can be a positive thing.”

“If you have the demographic structure that we have in Jamaica, technology can make up for or can complement our demographic structure,” he added.

“Ultimately, we want a society that’s also not only stable, but is sustainable,” Clarke argued, adding that the demographic changes allow for opportunities to improve our social conditions over time. He went further to explain that Jamaica can improve its social condition because having fewer children means the country’s ability to take care of the ones that are born is enhanced and increased.