Up to US$17 trillion in lifetime earnings could be lost by the current generation of students because of the novel coronavirus pandemic, according to a new report published by the World Bank, UNICEF and UNESCO yesterday.

The figure, which is equivalent to about 14 per cent of today’s global gross domestic product (GDP), relates to the learning losses from the pandemic-related school closures and far exceeds the US$10 billion estimate made last year.

It was contained in the study, entitled The State of the Global Education Crisis: A Path to Recovery. The report shows that in low- and middle-income countries, the share of children living in Learning Poverty – already 53 per cent before the pandemic – could potentially reach 70 per cent given the long school closures and the ineffectiveness of remote learning to ensure full learning continuity during school closures.

Commenting on the report, Jaime Saavedra, World Bank Global Director for Education, was forthright: “The COVID-19 crisis brought education systems across the world to a halt. Now, 21 months later, schools remain closed for millions of children, and others may never return to school. The loss of learning that many children are experiencing is morally unacceptable. And the potential increase of learning poverty might have a devastating impact on future productivity, earnings, and well-being for this generation of children and youth, their families, and the world’s economies.”

Evidence from Brazil, Pakistan, rural India, South Africa, and Mexico, among others, show substantial losses in math and reading. Analysis shows that in some countries, on average, learning losses are roughly proportional to the length of the closures. The estimated learning losses were greater in math than reading, and affected younger learners, students from low-income backgrounds, as well as girls, disproportionately.

Barring a few exceptions, the report shows the general trends from emerging evidence around the world align with the findings from Mexico, suggesting that the crisis has exacerbated inequities in education:

– Children from low-income households, children with disabilities, and girls were less likely to access remote learning than their peers. This was often due to lack of accessible technologies and the availability of electricity, connectivity, and devices, as well as discrimination and gender norms.

– Younger students had less access to remote learning and were more affected by learning loss than older students, especially among pre-school age children in pivotal learning and development stages.

– The detrimental impact on learning has disproportionately affected the most marginalised or vulnerable. Learning losses were greater for students of lower socioeconomic status in countries like Ghana, Mexico, and Pakistan.

– Initial evidence points to larger losses among girls, as they are quickly losing the protection that schools and learning offers to their well-being and life chances.

The report highlights that, to date, less than 3 per cent of governments’ stimulus packages have been allocated to education, and called for more funding to aid immediate learning recovery. The report also notes that while nearly every country in the world offered remote learning opportunities for students, the quality and reach of such initiatives differed – in most cases, they offered, at best, a rather partial substitute for in-person instruction. More than 200 million learners live in low- and lower middle-income countries that are unprepared to deploy remote learning during emergency school closures.

It also called on governments to make reopening schools a top and urgent priority and pressed for learning recovery programmes to be put in place with the objective of ensuring that students of this generation attain at least the same competencies of the previous generation.

“We are committed to supporting governments more generally with their COVID response through the mission recovery plan launched earlier this year,” emphasised Stefania Giannini, UNESCO assistant director-general for education. “With government leadership and support from the international community, there is a great deal that can be done to make systems more equitable, efficient, and resilient, capitalising on lessons learned throughout the pandemic and on increasing investments. But to do that, we must make children and youth a real priority amidst all the other demands of the pandemic response. Their future – and our collective future – depends on it.”

To build more resilient education systems for the long-term, countries should consider:

– Investing in the enabling environment to unlock the potential of digital learning opportunities for all students.

– Reinforcing the role of parents, families, and communities in children’s learning.

– Ensuring teachers have support and access to high-quality professional development opportunities.

– Increasing the share of education in the national budget allocation of stimulus packages.