In May this year I wrote, among other things, in my The Agenda piece: “Those who watch the swirling of the political tea leaves see too that the political Lignum Vitae is once again maturing, even though it is not ready to blossom.” More than likely it was pure coincidence that the Mark Golding-led People’s National Party (PNP) then started to run hither and thither, evidently preparing for local government elections. Weeks into the PNP’s exertion on their hamster wheel, Prime Minister Andrew Holness announced to the country that he was not ready to ring the election bell.

Well, even those with the slightest understanding of local elections can now see the flowering of the Lignum Vitae (Guiacum Officinale). The purplish-blue blooms, birthed by the splitting of pods, is very conspicuous. This is a sign of considerable apprehension for political sluggards.

I suspect that many of those who have been missing in action from their divisions will soon get their comeuppance. And many who view themselves as giant magnets, and their constituents as mere iron-filings, will soon meet their political Waterloo.

The upcoming parish council elections will have very important consequences for 20 Belmont Road and 89 Old Hope Road. It will be a referendum on the Andrew Holness-led Administration now approaching six years, specifically its management of the COVID-19 crisis and the present state of the economy, measured against what folks are feeling in their pockets and seeing on their dinner tables.

Notwithstanding the rapid rebound of the tourism sector, low unemployment and several State interventions targeted to help some of the most vulnerable, these are the worst of times for many Jamaicans. Skyrocketing prices in the markets and supermarkets — caused partly by global supply chain fiddling — rising utility costs, long-standing and mounting crime, nauseating social decay, the continued uncertainties as to when the fatigue of the novel coronavirus pandemic will relent, and the seeming never-ending tug-of-war between those for and against a vaccine mandate.

The upcoming local government elections will not be a walk in the park for the Holness Administration. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) currently holds nine of the 13 local authorities. It will have to pull out all the stops to retain and/or add to the count.

Recall that amidst the celebration of the JLP’s November 28, 2016 parish council election trouncing of the PNP, Holness admonished jubilant supporters: “The victory that the people have given to the Jamaica Labour Party must not be taken for granted.” I suspect we will soon find out how many of the then-winning councillors listened and not merely heard Holness’s explicit warning.

The JLP cannot afford to lose the upcoming polls. To do so would throw a political lifeline to the divided PNP and its embattled president. Recall, five months ago, I said in this space: “People’s National Party (PNP) President Mark Golding’s position atop the shaky political perch will be pulled hither and thither by increased tensions, and dogged by cock-ups, inexpert optics, and amateurish political choreography until he achieves a victory at the ballot box.” ( Jamaica Observer, July 11, 2021)

I have been proved right, several times, since that political forecast.

In previous articles I have illustrated that the deep lacerations in the PNP had widened, notwithstanding the generous application of the party’s ‘unity dressing’.

As recent as last week the long shadows of a prolonged and very bitter internal strife which has hounded the PNP resurfaced. Consider this: ‘Former Opposition leader says PNP failed to pull their weight in 2020 General Elections’. The news item noted these and related details: “Former Opposition Leader Dr Peter Phillips says certain factions in the People’s National Party did not pull their weight in the run-up to the September 2020 General Election.

“The former Opposition leader says he believes members of the party deliberately damaged the prospects of the PNP in order to oust him.

“Dr Peter Phillips avoided naming any names, but made it clear he felt he was not given the support needed to bring the party to victory.” ( Nationwide News Network, November 8, 2021)

One does not need a degree in calculus to figure ‘who and who’, as we say in local parlance, Dr Phillips is throwing stones at.

The PNP continues to be united in division. Notwithstanding the PNP’s toxic hotchpotch, Golding has to win a consequential election to preserve his political beacon, and in so doing rid himself of his very tremulous control of Norman Manley’s party. If Golding loses or fails to secure what can be categorised as a decent draw, political war will follow, and his leadership will be challenged at the PNP’s next annual conference. Or, worse, a sort of palace coup might be staged by the remnants of the OnePNP faction who are still licking their wounds and waiting by the river to see the bodies of their enemies float by.

Some in the PNP might even get it into their heads that a certain letter — the subject of which centres on continued confidence — should be taken to the governor general. Were that to happen, Senator Damion Crawford’s alleged prediction for Golding’s “two year” political longevity would be fulfilled.

Realpolitik

There is a view in politics that when your opponent is falling one should get out of the way. So I suspect the prime minister is going to press home whatever political advantage he has.

I don’t think Holness will wait until 2022 to announce the date for the holding of the next local government elections. Why? The novel coronavirus positivity rate is low at present. Holness did say he would not name the date until there was a levelling-off of the most recent surge in novel coronavirus infections.

Recently, noted epidemiologist Professor Peter Figueroa warned that a fourth wave of the novel coronavirus could hit Jamaica by year end. I think that wave might run into February-March of 2022. Here I am using our three previous novel coronavirus spikes as a barometer.

Additionally, the JLP has its annual conference coming up this month. Holness might be thinking of using its momentum as a springboard to the holding of the local government elections.

If I were betting man I would say Holness is going to ring the bell for an early December poll.

Ready… and rolling

Recall that at the start of this month JLP Chairman Robert Montague told the country that: “The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has pulled the covers off its election machinery, conducting canvasses and fielding candidates for more than 200 divisions months ahead of the February deadline for local government elections.” ( The Gleaner, November 1, 2021)

I gather the JLP’s election machinery is ready to roll — notwithstanding minor organisational and political kinks which need ironing out in less than two dozen parish council divisions in three parishes.

Last Monday the PNP announced that “it was hitting the road for weekly tours and meetings to drum up support for its councillor-candidates”. ( Nationwide News Network, November 8, 2021)

The PNP obviously does not want to be caught flat-footed. Interestingly, Dr Morais Guy, its spokesman on health, has remained mum on his party’s announcement. Recall Dr Guy ‘kicked up a lot of rumpus’ when Prime Minister Holness, many weeks ago, announced a trek across the country to promote life-saving vaccination against the deadly novel coronavirus. Hypocrisy!

Two-way political peril

The stakes are not only very high for the PNP. They are for the JLP, too. If the JLP were to lose the upcoming parish council elections, I think that would cause a resurrection of the frequent nightmarish-type visitations with which the Portia Simpson Miller-led Opposition of 2007-2011 haunted the Bruce Golding’s Administration.

I believe that, except for the Opposition led by Edward Seaga in the 1970s, Simpson Miller led the most effective Opposition in this nation’s history. The frightening visitations of 2007-2011 are doubtless still very fresh in the minds of the JLP.

I believe the PNP is suffering with an advanced case of Jamaica House Withdrawal Syndrome at this time. Certainly, they would jump at the political jugular of the JLP were they to win the upcoming local government elections.

The big challenge for the PNP, as I see it, is that it will have to excite and inspire a return of those it claims are its supporters who avoided the polling booth on September 3, 2020 when the PNP was severely pounded 49-14. How might it achieve that objective? I think it has to strike a new chord. I have discussed that in previous articles.

The challenge for the JLP is that it will have to find the winds of momentum which it used to run rings around a politically emaciated PNP just over a year ago. The PNP is still anaemic. A malnourished political animal, however, is a very dangerous creature. It has all to gain and nothing to lose because its very life/survival depends on winning.

The JLP has made some giant missteps that have not endeared an electorate which is rapidly losing confidence in the ability of our politics to improve their lives. Recall that unprecedented 37 per cent voter turnout in our 18th parliamentary, and 30.8 per cent in our 16th local government election held in 2016. Over many years I have been using this space to, among other things, draw concern to the spiralling voter disinterest in our country. It must concern all well-thinking Jamaicans. I don’t foresee that there will be any great enthusiasm for the upcoming parish council elections that will positively shift the low voter turnout trajectory we are on. The party which gets out the majority of its base will win.

Deficient political will

“What nuh happen in year, happen in a day.” We all saw manifestation of this local adage two Fridays ago.

We watched the emergency sitting of the House of Representatives followed by a Senate sitting, which facilitated the ruling JLP’s use of its majority to push through amendments to the old Road Traffic Act to protect the Government from legal action which reports in sections of the media say could cost taxpayers billions.

While the PNP tries to milk the predicament of the Holness Administration in this matter, it cannot, of course, escape blame for the genesis of the mess which caused the mentioned preventable emergency. There is certainly enough blame to go around, as evidenced in this snippet from a news item in this newspaper last Saturday. It noted, among other things: “The Road Traffic Amendment Validation and Indemnity Act (2021) seeks to amend the Road Traffic Act (1938) to include penalties that were established in 2006 and 2007 by provisional tax orders signed by then Finance Minister Dr Omar Davies. The Bill increases the range of fixed penalties… and could protect the Government from having to pay out monies to motorists who had been overcharged in traffic fines since 2006.”

Well-thinking Jamaicans should not miss the lesson here. Successive administrations can get done what has to be done, when it matters. Recall the numerous meetings of the House and Senate that went into the wee hours to ensure that laws were amended to facilitate International Monetary Fund (IMF) drawdowns when Jamaica had a borrowing relationship with the fund.

Minister of Justice Delroy Chuck told us in January 2019 that there were “about 800 laws in the ministries to be updated”. Some are most likely vestiges of our colonial past. Chuck needs to update us on how many of the 800 have been updated.

We have very unproductive cultural preoccupation with doing, especially critical things at the very last minute, as we saw in the House. We must end that nonsense. It would inspire a great cultural shift if our leaders were to devote one Friday each month over the next four years to update our archaic laws.

Commendations to Bartlett

I believe in giving credit when it is justly earned. Minister of Tourism Edmund Bartlett deserves commendation for his sterling work. Jamaica’s tourism sector has been lauded as one of the fastest to recover globally.

On June 7, 2021 The Gleaner reported that 80 per cent of tourism workers were back on the job. I imagine that figure has gone up considerably by now. Clearly, Minister Bartlett and his team are doing something right.

Headline: ’50 cruise ships set to dock before year end’ ( Jamaica Observer, November 10, 2021)

Headline: ‘Carnival commits 110 cruises to Jamaica’ ( The Gleaner, September 29, 2021)

These headlines tell us that, despite the overlapping difficulties of the novel coronavirus pandemic, Bartlett is achieving positive and tangible results.

I think he is a credit to the Holness Administration. The Cabinet needs a few more Edmund Bartletts.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.