THE EDITOR: Thirty-two seats is the minimum either of the two major political parties will need to win on September 3 to get a mandate to form the next Government. With both parties having a bunch of seats that they are almost certain to win, the push will be for a handful of marginal ones to determine the winner of the race to 32.

Two analysts, with ties to the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People’s National Party (PNP), will be looking at these key seats in the lead up to September 3.

This time it is Hanover Eastern where the JLP’s Dave Hume Brown will try to hang on to the seat when he faces political virgin Wavell Hinds.

THE LABOURITE: Hanover Eastern has been the mother of all swing seats since 1944. In my opinion this is the JLP’s most vulnerable seat.

If the PNP does not win this seat with its standard bearer Wavell Hinds, clearly it cannot think about winning the general election. The incumbent Dave Brown will seek to take the number of JLP victories in the seat to eight, if one does not count the 1983 election which the PNP did not contest.

A victory for Brown would see the two parties tied with eight victories in the seat which was first won by independent candidate Joseph Malcolm in 1944.

The JLP normally wins the Hopewell and Chester Castle divisions while the PNP usually wins big in its stronghold of Sandy Bay.

Dave Brown polled 6,386 votes in 2016 to win by 340 votes over the PNP’s Wynter McIntosh, and I believe that any candidate who gets more than 6,500 votes this time around will win.

The only four candidates to get over 6,500 votes in this seat have been the JLP’s Basil Buck with 7,239 votes in 1980, the PNP’s DK Duncan with 6,853 votes in 2011, the PNP’s Aston King with 6,700 votes in 1989, and the JLP’s Paula Kerr-Jarrett with 6,602 votes in 201.

This time around Brown should win due to work he has done in the constituency and the popularity of the JLP leader Andrew Holness, while Hinds goes into battle without any assistance from the PNP’s unpopular president Dr Peter Phillips.

THE COMRADE: Wavell Hinds has never been a Member of Parliament, but he is no rookie when it comes to difficult and tough fights.

The former Jamaica and West Indies cricketer is attacking the 340 vote margin by which the JLP’s Dave Brown won the seat in 2016 and Hinds is attacking his task as if it was the fast bowler from Zimbabwe, against whom he made his Test debut 20 years ago.

The 43-year-old Hinds, a left-handed batsman and occasional right-arm medium-pace bowler, played 45 Test matches for the West Indies between 2000 and 2005, and 119 One Day Internationals.

Even though a first time political candidate, he is no stranger to political struggles.

As president of the West Indies Players Association, he emerged victorious after a bitter battle over a collective bargaining agreement he signed with the West Indies Cricket Board.

At that time Hinds showed the mettle that makes him perfectly suited to provide the level of representation that the people of Hanover Eastern are demanding.

Hinds has vowed to improve the quality of life for the people of the rural constituency when elected, with an approach to representational politics which is modernistic yet modelled on the tenets brought into the PNP by former Prime Minister Michael Manley.

He is the first to admit that he has benefited from the “Manley doctrine” and this sparked his decision to work with the people of Hanover Eastern so that they can earn a living for themselves and do not need to depend on politicians to survive.

After the votes have been counted on September 3, Hinds will add representative of the people to the honours he earned on the cricket field.

Who do you think will win? Comment below and let us know.