The Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) pulled five points from the 19-point lead held by the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in July as campaigning intensified for the September 3 General Election. But even with that advance the JLP emerged from the most recent poll conducted by Bill Johnson holding a 14-point advantage that, according to the veteran pollster, will carry the party to victory “unless something catastrophic happens” before Thursday.

When Johnson and his researchers went into the field July 9-12, a combined 36 per cent of respondents indicated that they would definitely or probably vote for the JLP if an election was being held at that time, compared to 17 per cent who said they would give the PNP their vote.

Five weeks later, when the pollsters went into communities, 37 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the JLP, while 23 per cent said their vote would go to the PNP if an election was being held at that time.

“The JLP’s lead over the PNP slipped from 19 points (36 per cent to 17 per cent) in July to 14 points (37 per cent to 23 per cent) in our latest survey,” Johnson stated. “While JLP support remained basically constant, support for the PNP increased by 6 points, as those who voted for the party in 2016 and are now supporting it increased from 50 per cent in July to 68 per cent when we conducted this survey.”

Noting that almost one-quarter of those who voted for the PNP in 2016 were either undecided (13 per cent) or not planning to vote (11 per cent) when the August poll was conducted, Johnson said, “They should be low-hanging fruit for the PNP, and if they can be persuaded to support their comrades on election day the JLP victory margin could be cut by several points.”

The August poll canvassed the views of 1,000 voting-age Jamaicans islandwide and has a sampling error of plus or minus three per cent. The July poll, as well as a previous survey conducted March 12-15, captured the opinions of 1,200 Jamaicans each and both had a sampling error of 2.5 per cent.

All three polls were commissioned by the Jamaica Observer. The March poll was not published due to the COVID-19 outbreak in the island.

In all three polls the number of undecided voters were 18, 20 and 18 per cent, while those who said they would not vote moved from 27 per cent in March to 25 per cent in July, and 21 per cent in August.

Johnson also reported that in the age demographics, “the JLP continues to decimate the PNP among those under 35 years old, while the PNP is stronger — although still virtually tied with the JLP — among those 55 and older”.