JAMAICA can breathe a sigh of relief as it was not named among the 74 countries that experienced increased rates of new HIV infections over the past decade, according to a new scientific paper.

The study by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) collaborative network, published on July 19 in The Lancet HIV, found that 74 countries, including Pakistan, Kenya, Mexico, and Russia, saw increases in age-standardised rates of new infections between 2005 and 2015.

Lead author on the study, assistant professor of Global Health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, Haidong Wang, told the Jamaica Observer that Jamaica is not among those countries.

“As the lead author on the paper, it has become quite evident to me — and it should be quite evident to the population health community — that we face significant challenges in meeting the goal for the world to witness the end of AIDS in less than 15 years,” he said.

The new research, which was released at the International AIDS Conference held in Durban, South Africa, from July 18-22, is the first in a series of papers representing the new estimates that identify “stubbornly high” new infections and stagnation of decline in new incidence in the past decade.

Wang also pointed out that while the global number of new cases continues to decline, the pace has greatly slowed.

“Annual incidence of HIV has stayed relatively constant at about 2.5 million new cases per year since 2005, after a period of faster decline between 1997 and 2005,” Wang said. “The GBD 2015 (report) estimated a 0.7 per cent annualised rate of decline in new infections between 2005 and 2015, a stark contrast to the 2.2 per cent annual decline between 1997 and 2005,” he added.

The study is based on findings from the ‘Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study’ coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. With more that 1,700 collaborators in 124 countries, the GBD is said to be the largest and most comprehensive effort measuring epidemiological levels and trends worldwide.

Professor Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and the founding executive director of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), said:

“This study shows that the AIDS epidemic is not over by any means and that HIV/AIDS remains one of the biggest public health threats of our time. The continuing high rate of over two million new HIV infections represents a collective failure which must be addressed through intensified prevention efforts and continued investment in HIV vaccine research.”

Although he is not the author of the paper, Professor Piot pointed out to Your Health Your Wealth that Jamaica must find its own solution to continue efforts against HIV.

“I think that in terms of the Caribbean in general, as in other parts of the world, there are increases for new infections, particularly in gay men and younger people [as] AIDS is not over and it is important to continue the efforts.

“I think they have to be adapted to local culture, to the local epidemiology,” he continued. “And you have built a lot of experience in the Caribbean, including Jamaica… but you need to find your own way to do it.”

The study examines HIV mortality, prevalence and incidence between 1980 and 2015.

In contrast to the overall slow decline in new infections, the number of people living with HIV has increased globally, which experts say is largely due to the expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

IHME estimates there were about 39 million people globally living with HIV in 2015, compared to 28 million in 2000. The IHME added that in 2015, 41 per cent of people living with HIV were using ART as compared to less than two per cent in 2000.

“We’re keeping people alive longer and these numbers should give those using antiretroviral therapies considerable hope,” Wang said.

However, such improvement is still far away from the 90-90-90 goals set by the global community for 2020, which aim for 90 per cent of people living with HIV knowing their status, 90 per cent of people diagnosed with HIV receiving ART, and 90 per cent of people receiving ART experiencing viral suppression.

“The percentage of people living with HIV on ART went from 6.2 per cent of men and 3.2 per cent of women in 2005, to 38.5 per cent of men and 42.4 per cent of women in 2015,” Wang said. “That’s good news — except when you consider the alternative: More than 60 per cent of men and more than 57 per cent of women living with HIV are not on medications.”

Meanwhile, the IHME study found that in relation to mortality, women tend to die at younger ages from HIV than men, likely due to age-disparate relationships in which men have sex with younger women.

The IHME said in total, approximately 1.2 million people died from HIV in 2015, down from a peak of 1.8 million in 2005.

However, Wang said there is a need for more effective efforts to prevent new infections.

“Much more needs to be done. Everyone in population health — researchers, policymakers, practitioners, pharmaceutical companies, advocates, and others — must understand that even though more people are living with HIV, and living longer than before, we must slow rates of new infections.

“And we must meet the needs of those infected to have ready access to ART,” he said.