Derek Ramsamooj, the Trinidad-based political scientist whose polls for the February 25 general election predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the marginal seats, which proved crucial to the JLP’s win, says the traditional methods of campaigning used in the Westminster system 20 years ago now needs to undergo transformation.

Ramsamooj, in an interview with the Jamaica Observer at his St Andrew hotel on Friday, said that the traditional voting patterns in the last two decades where people historically voted along party lines, even in marginal seats, have now been shifted.

“It is evident that the Jamaican political culture has the capacity for political maturity and has been evolving beyond garrison- type politics,” he said.

Traditionally, a low voter turnout in Jamaica has known to favour the People’s National Party (PNP), but the JLP shocked some political pundits when it won 33 of the 63-seat legislature, despite a turnout of 47.7 per cent, the lowest in the nation’s history.

However, Ramsamooj said he was not surprised as the “winability factor” in the Westminster system is now determined by swing and first-time voters in different geographical areas.

People in the 18 to 40 age group, he said, no longer depend on the traditional depend on the traditional methods (party rallies) to receive their political messages, instead they are influenced by digital messages and social media, which are now significant in Jamaica and throughout the Caribbean.

“The traditional method in electioneering is only for the mature electorate and not the emerging electorate,” said the University of the West Indies, London School of Economics and Harvard-educated political scientist who was in Jamaica to study the behaviour of the electorate and political patterns leading up to Thursday’s election.

“Emerging political methodologies must now be adopted to that specific niche electorate (18 to 40 age group),” he added. He was also commissioned to conduct polls in 14 marginal constituencies, 12 of which went to the JLP and shifted the balance of power in its favour.

Commenting on two national polls which predicted a PNP victory, Ramsamooj, compared to his prediction in the marginal seats which showed a JLP lead, said that while a national poll will give a different perception it does not necessarily show what the overall results will be.

“Society has changed and so the change in the dynamics of the electorate must also be measured,” he said.

According to the political scientist, the JLP’s message of ‘Poverty to Prosperity’ was better received by the electorate as there is now a culture of instant political gratification that is now emerging, where people want to have their needs met as quickly as possible, and which take precedence over the political loyalty factor.

He said that the JLP’s plan to removed income tax payment for workers earning $1.5 million or less therefore resonated with even the business community, people in construction and government services.

“Pocketbook issues that are fundamental to improving life are important.The average Jamaican made sacrifices at the expense of passing the IMF tests and many believe they should now have some benefits for those sacrifices,” he said.

Ramsamooj said he observed that the political battle between the PNP and JLP were about political loyalty versus the hope and aspirations of a better quality of life in the shortest possible time, which best describes the JLP’s campaign and “therein lies the political difference”.

“One could also argue that the generational age difference between the two leaders (the JLP’s Andrew Holness, 43, and the PNP’s Portia Simpson Miller, 70) and the different strategies and campaign methodologies of the two parties [contributed to the outcome of the election].”

However, he said the JLP also benefited from the default vote, which he listed as the failure of the PNP to identify what it would be doing for the country over the next five years, the failure of the PNP to participate in a national debate, as well as the negative campaign and attack on its opponents.