In the final of his four-part series on the key constituencies that will affect both of the major political parties in their quest to win the next general election set for Thursday, February 25, political analyst Ruel Cooke turns his attention to the all-important swing factor.

There are four constituencies won by a margin of between five and eight percentage points — that is, the parties won or lost by no more than four per cent.

These are termed swing constituencies to distinguish them from the first category of 12 marginal constituencies.

They have a history of swinging violently from one party to the next in recent elections, usually when there is a national swing. Whereas the marginal constituencies already examined can be won by applying the rules of the “ground game”, even in the absence of a favourable swing, these latter constituencies require a national swing of at least four per cent to change hands.

Were the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) to pick up all nine marginal seats held by the People’s National Party (PNP) as well as the swing seats, they could form a Government with 34 members. This appears to be the best-case scenario for the JLP, barring surprises — and there will always be surprises.

On the other hand, the PNP could stretch its current haul of seats to 45.

The point of all the sound and fury of the election campaign at the national level therefore, is to establish the momentum to facilitate the organisational efforts at the ground level for the marginal constituencies and to bring at least the following four swing constituencies into play.

ST ANN NORTH WESTERN

Here, the PNP’s Dr Dayton Campbell and the defeated former JLP MP Othniel Lawrence will face off once again. Last time, Campbell prevailed by 673 votes. Support is evenly split across the constituency, except for the PNP’s advantage in Brown’s Town. Lawrence will need to re-establish the traditional JLP base in Discovery Bay.

During his time as the people’s representative Dr Campbell has introduced a number of community initiatives which have gone down well with his constituents and is seemingly quite aware of just what he needs to do in order to return to Gordon House.

Lawrence had some issues with his party’s leadership, but those have been seemingly resolved and he is once again trying to pull out all the stops to gain re-election.

LAST FOUR ELECTION RESULTS

PNP – People’s National Party

JLP – Jamaica Labour Party

IND – Independent

NDM – National Democratic Party

MGPPP – Marcus Garvey People’s Progressive Party

December 29, 2011

Othneil Damion Lawrence JLP 7,831

Dayton Ricardo Campbell PNP 8,674

Per cent votes 53.07

Total Voters 31,248

***First time MP***

September 3, 2007

Othneil Damion Lawrence JLP 8,210

Michal Whittingham PNP 7,346

Per cent votes 61.98

Total Voters 25,167

October 16, 2002

Verna Parchment JLP 7,564

Arnold Tennyson Bertram PNP 7,362

Michael Phillip Asher NDM 90

Toussaint Anthony Lewin IND 45

Per cent votes 64.2

Total Voters

23,594

December 18, 1997

Ernest Smith JLP 6,632

Arnold Tennyson Bertram PNP 8,232

Geoffrey Waugh NDM 245

Per cent votes 68.32

Total Voters 22,210

ST ANN SOUTH WESTERN

This constituency is the bastion of the Gallimore family. It was taken away from them in 2011 by Keith Walford for the PNP. Walford strengthened the party’s hold by a margin of 822 votes. Zavia Mayne of the JLP is seeking to reverse the tide.

Mayne is from the JLP stronghold of Watt Town, which forms part of the Gibraltar Parish Council Division. Mayne’s mother was the JLP representative for the Gibraltar Division from 1998 – 2003, after which she ran as an independent candidate in the local government election.

Gibraltar overall is a strong JLP area.

Walford works, lives and operates his business enterprises in Alexandria, an area which is traditionally JLP. To repeat his win, Walford has to garner more votes from Alexandria while maximising in the PNP strongholds in the Borobridge Division and Calderwood

Mayne has a daunting but not impossible task. He must re-establish the traditional JLP strength in Alexandria.

LAST FOUR ELECTION RESULTS

December 29, 2011

Ernest Smith JLP 5,703

Keith Anthony Walford PNP 6,525

Andrew Wayne Willis IND 84

Per cent votes 54.24

Total Voters 22,828

***First time MP***

September 3, 2007

Ernest Smith JLP 6,112

Glenville Shaw PNP 4,964

Per cent votes 64.42

Total Voters 17,236

October 16, 2002

Ernest Smith JLP 6, 046

Glenville Shaw PNP 5,022

David Abrikian NDM 33

Per cent votes 64.4

Total Voters 17,311

December 18, 1997

Neville Gallimore JLP 5,749

Glenville Shaw PNP 6,363

Albert Lyon NDM 500

Louis Phillips IND 40

Per cent votes 78.88

Total Voters 16, 121

ST JAMES WEST CENTRAL

The JLP is betting heavily on returning this seat to the fold.

The party has placed one of its brightest future assets, the former judge, Marlene Malahoo-Forte, to close the gap of 673 votes established by Sharon Ffolkes Abrahams in the last election.

Malahoo-Forte needs to match her fiery rhetoric with the necessary work on the ground to maximise her votes in Spring Garden, West Green and Catherine Hall. The effect of the JLP councillor for Spring Garden, Richard Solomon, shifting allegiance to the PNP last year cannot be known as yet.

Ffolkes Abrahams gets her main area of support from Granville, where she is robustly assisted by long-time councillor and deputy mayor of Montego Bay Michael Troupe.

Ffolkes Abrahams has been in her constituency working and has been able to forge quite a good internal organisation. Every vote will count here, so the clarion call is to get out the voters.

LAST FOUR ELECTION RESULTS

December 29, 2011

Clive Arthur Mullings JLP 5,535Sharon Ffolkes Abrahams PNP 6,208Septimus Clifford Barrett MGPPP 21Per cent votes 48.94Total Voters 24,159***First time MP***September 3, 2007Clive Arthur Mullings JLP 7,752Francis Tulloch PNP 7,216Apollone Reid NDM 51Per cent votes 56.41Total Voters 26,779October 16, 2002Clive Arthur Mullings JLP 7,098Hugh Anthony Solomon PNP 5, 980Juan Exeomo Reid NDM 49Per cent votes 63 Total VotersDecember 18, 1997Anthony Lewin JLP 5,246Arthur Nelson PNP 5,873Ainsley Blair NDM 618Per cent votes 55.6Total Voters 21,229ST ELIZABETH SOUTH EASTernRichard Parchment seems to have re-established the PNP’s traditional dominance in this constituency when he vanquished Frank Witter by 970 votes. This is the constituency literally built for the PNP by Derrick Rochester. For Parchment to win he must ensure good voter turnouts in his strong areas of Myersville, Leeds, and Southampton.Witter’s greatest hope is to put all his marbles and play in Southfield (more precisely Top Hill) and Junction to repeat his upset of 2007.Malvern is the main swing area. At present Malvern is represented in the St Elizabeth Parish Council by former West Indies pace bowler Daren Powell for the PNP. For Witter to win on February 25 he has to dominate Malvern. LAST FOUR ELECTION RESULTSDecember 29, 2011Franklyn Witter JLP 8,932Richard Antonio Parchment PNP 9,902Per cent votes 68.77Total Voters 27,617***First time MP***September 3, 2007Franklyn Witter JLP 9,064Norman Horne PNP 8,520Conrad Powell NDM 31 Sharon Whitter IND 28Per cent votes 74.81Total Voters 23,653October 16, 2002Franklyn Witter JLP 7,425Lenworth Blake PNP 7,507Earle L Powell NDM 30Per cent votes 71 Total Voters 21,495December 18, 1997Franklyn Witter JLP 6,160Derrick Rochester PNP 8,164Earle L Powell NDM 492Per cent votes 75.32CONCLUSIONTo conclude this series, there is unlikely to be a change of Administration unless there is at least a four per cent swing in favour of the JLP.

Clive Arthur Mullings JLP 5,535

Sharon Ffolkes Abrahams PNP 6,208

Septimus Clifford Barrett MGPPP 21

Per cent votes 48.94

Total Voters 24,159

***First time MP***

September 3, 2007

Clive Arthur Mullings JLP 7,752

Francis Tulloch PNP 7,216

Apollone Reid NDM 51

Per cent votes 56.41

Total Voters 26,779

October 16, 2002

Clive Arthur Mullings JLP 7,098

Hugh Anthony Solomon PNP 5, 980

Juan Exeomo Reid NDM 49

Per cent votes 63

Total Voters

23,516

December 18, 1997

Anthony Lewin JLP 5,246

Arthur Nelson PNP 5,873

Ainsley Blair NDM 618

Per cent votes 55.6

Total Voters 21,229

ST ELIZABETH SOUTH EASTern

Richard Parchment seems to have re-established the PNP’s traditional dominance in this constituency when he vanquished Frank Witter by 970 votes. This is the constituency literally built for the PNP by Derrick Rochester.

For Parchment to win he must ensure good voter turnouts in his strong areas of Myersville, Leeds, and Southampton.

Witter’s greatest hope is to put all his marbles and play in Southfield (more precisely Top Hill) and Junction to repeat his upset of 2007.

Malvern is the main swing area. At present Malvern is represented in the St Elizabeth Parish Council by former West Indies pace bowler Daren Powell for the PNP.

For Witter to win on February 25 he has to dominate Malvern.

LAST FOUR ELECTION RESULTS

December 29, 2011

Franklyn Witter JLP 8,932

Richard Antonio Parchment PNP 9,902

Per cent votes 68.77

Total Voters 27,617

***First time MP***

September 3, 2007

Franklyn Witter JLP 9,064

Norman Horne PNP 8,520

Conrad Powell NDM 31

Sharon Whitter IND 28

Per cent votes 74.81

Total Voters 23,653

October 16, 2002

Franklyn Witter JLP 7,425

Lenworth Blake PNP 7,507

Earle L Powell NDM 30

Per cent votes 71

Total Voters 21,495

December 18, 1997

Franklyn Witter JLP 6,160

Derrick Rochester PNP 8,164

Earle L Powell NDM 492

Per cent votes 75.32

CONCLUSION

To conclude this series, there is unlikely to be a change of Administration unless there is at least a four per cent swing in favour of the JLP.