Political analyst Ruel Cooke continues with the third of his four-part series on the key constituencies that will affect both of the major political parties in their quest to win the next general election set for Thursday February 25. Today, Cooke turns his attention to seats in central Jamaica.

Nearly half (40 per cent) of the number of constituencies in Jamaica are located in the central region, that is, the county of Middlesex. There is a total of 25 constituencies at stake, with 15 controlled by the People’s National Party and 10 by the Jamaica Labour Party. St Ann and Manchester can be said to be PNP territory, with a 3-1 advantage in case.

St Catherine and Clarendon, with a combined total of 17 constituencies, are the parishes where both parties have trained their guns in recent elections. They have fought to a virtual stalemate, with the PNP having a majority of one. They are tied at three each in Clarendon, while in St Catherine the PNP has six, compared to the JLP’s five.

There is not much room for breaking this stalemate this time around. There are only two marginal constituencies (that is, within a five-point margin – one held by the JLP and the other by the PNP).

CLARENDON SOUTH EASTERN

This was the sanctuary of the ‘Chief’ himself, Sir Alexander Bustamante, after he fled from West Kingston in 1949. He bequeathed it to his heir, Hugh Shearer, who in turn bequeathed it to his heir, Ruddy Spencer.

Its bulwarks have been breached only once, by a youthful Peter Bunting in 1993. Patricia Duncan Sutherland of the PNP has set her sights on repeating the achievement of her friend and mentor. ‘Tricia’, as she is better known, has been engaged in a vigorous and methodical campaign for the seat for some time. She has been working hard in the constituency and, based on reports, has established a strong internal organisation.

Duncan Sutherland needs to surmount a small barrier of a mere 107 votes, Spencer permitting when last at the polls in 2011 against the PNP’s Derrick Lambert.

The JLP’s strength has traditionally been the sugar cane belt of Rocky Point. The PNP has built its own stronghold of Hayes to counter Rocky Point, and the other areas of JLP strength are to be found at Palmer’s Cross and Mineral Heights.

Mineral Heights, with its strong lower -and middle-class homesteads, could hold the balance in the outcome of this constituency.

Spencer is a wily contender and will not go down without a fight. He will have to have his on-the-ground organisation in tip-top shape in order to earn another term in Gordon House.

A close call and certainly one to watch as the results pour in.

LAST FOUR ELECTION RESULTS

PNP – People’s National Party

JLP – Jamaica Labour Party

IND – Independent

NDM – National Democratic Party

December 29, 2011

Rudyard Conrad Spencer JLP 8,843Derrick Lloyd Lambert PNP 8,736Rudyard Conrad Spencer JLP 9,421Scean Barnswell PNP 7,153Rudyard Conrad Spencer JLP 7,997 Basil Antonio Burrell PNP 7,425 St Andrade W Sinclair NDM 53Edwin Singh JLP 7,242Basil Burrell PNP 7,296St Andrade W Sinclair NDM 430This is the least marginal of the marginal seats, captured by the PNP’s Arnaldo Brown by 558 votes in 2011. Brown is now being challenged by dreadlocked defender of unpopular causes, attorney Alando Terrelonge.The election borders of St Catherine East Central were redefined for the 2011 election, making it effectively the first time an election was being contested in the constituency. It should be noted that in elections before 2011 there was a St Catherine East Central constituency with much more extensive borders, stretching at one time from Gregory Park in Portmore to Bog Walk and travelling along the Mandela Highway (right and left sides) and the Sligoville Road. PNP stalwart KD Knight was the dominant force in the old St Catherine East Central.Gregory Park has long been an impregnable voting garrison for the JLP. With the advent of new housing developments (Silverstone, Cedar Grove, among others), Brown was able to make considerable inroads. Both sides balance out each other in the Southboro Division, between the PNP’s Southboro housing scheme and the JLP community of Naggo Head. The new housing development of Southboro is what swung the balance in the PNP’s favour.The JLP’s best hope of recapturing this seat is to double down and fortify its Gregory Park support.The voter turnout in 2011 of 51 per cent was just shy of the national average of 53 per cent. Suzzette Camille Buchanan JLP 5,176Arnaldo Brown PNP 5,734

Rudyard Conrad Spencer JLP 8,843

Derrick Lloyd Lambert PNP 8,736

Per cent Votes 50.33

Total Voters 35,097

September 3, 2007

Rudyard Conrad Spencer JLP 9,421

Scean Barnswell PNP 7,153

Per cent Votes 8.62Total Voters 28,389

October 16, 2002

Rudyard Conrad Spencer JLP 7,997 Basil Antonio Burrell PNP 7,425 St Andrade W Sinclair NDM 53

Per cent Votes 59

Total Voters 26,212

December 18, 1997

Edwin Singh JLP 7,242

Basil Burrell PNP 7,296

St Andrade W Sinclair NDM 430

Per cent Votes 65.22

Total Voters 23, 153

ST CATHERINE EAST CENTRAL

This is the least marginal of the marginal seats, captured by the PNP’s Arnaldo Brown by 558 votes in 2011. Brown is now being challenged by dreadlocked defender of unpopular causes, attorney Alando Terrelonge.

The election borders of St Catherine East Central were redefined for the 2011 election, making it effectively the first time an election was being contested in the constituency.

It should be noted that in elections before 2011 there was a St Catherine East Central constituency with much more extensive borders, stretching at one time from Gregory Park in Portmore to Bog Walk and travelling along the Mandela Highway (right and left sides) and the Sligoville Road. PNP stalwart KD Knight was the dominant force in the old St Catherine East Central.

Gregory Park has long been an impregnable voting garrison for the JLP.

With the advent of new housing developments (Silverstone, Cedar Grove, among others), Brown was able to make considerable inroads.

Both sides balance out each other in the Southboro Division, between the PNP’s Southboro housing scheme and the JLP community of Naggo Head.

The new housing development of Southboro is what swung the balance in the PNP’s favour.

The JLP’s best hope of recapturing this seat is to double down and fortify its Gregory Park support.

The voter turnout in 2011 of 51 per cent was just shy of the national average of 53 per cent.

December 29, 2011

Suzzette Camille Buchanan JLP 5,176

Arnaldo Brown PNP 5,734

Per cent Votes 51.42Total Voters 21,436

***First time MP***