POLITICAL analyst Derek Ramsamooj believes Thursday’s general election will be very close, but will come down to a fight for the 10 to 15 marginal constituencies in which candidates in the respective seats will have to work hard to get their supporters out.

The Trinidad-based political analyst, who has been observing elections in the Caribbean for more than 25 years, was in Jamaica in late 2015 when the ruling People’s National Party (PNP) put the nation on election alert, and returned late when Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller announced the election date at a mass rally held in Half-Way-Tree, the St Andrew capital.

He said he observed that like other countries in the region, the trends and influences in the Jamaica are influenced by party loyalty, political leadership, national appeal, based on issues and candidates at the constituency level.

The London School of Economics and Harvard-educated Ramsamooj said both the PNP and the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) have been using different types of messages to attract the electorate — the PNP banking on the progress it has made to date; and the JLP on its ability to secure a better Jamaica through its partnership for prosperity.

“Despite the big rallies being held today (JLP in Half-Way-Tree and PNP in Montego Bay), the next four days are going to be crucial for the political parties, which will need to be on the ground to win voter support.

What matters is effective mobilisation,” he said. He added that incentives being offered in the national campaigns will influence the voting pattern on election day.

“I have observed, using scientific data, that the race has tightened and will come down to the marginal constituencies, based on a number of factors,” said Ramsamooj.

Among them, he said, are:

• Job creation;

• National security ;

• Quality of life issues, such as having more money in their pocket;

• Housing; and

• The ability to create and attract investment.

However, he told the Jamaica Observer in an exclusive interview, at his hotel in Kingston yesterday, that the message from the JLP seems to be resonating more with the people.

“The majority of individuals I have spoken with hold the belief that the IMF (International Monetary Fund) achievements under the PNP have been at the expense of the people,” he said.

“Overall, there are sentiments that [the country needs] a leadership style that will create the environment to balance the IMF conditionalaties, while creating the opportunity to improve the quality of life for the people,” he added.

In the meantime, he said the greatest voter apathy is among the 18 to 40-odd age group, which represents a fertile political opportunity for Holness, who is only 43, to establish greater connectivity by “providing sustainable leadership to enhance their quality of life”.

According to Ramsamooj, electors in the 18 to 40-odd age group also want to know which leader can the population trust to provide the solutions , not only meeting the needs of the global financial institutions, but the needs of the people at the community level.

“… There is a critical role for the State to use local resources in establishing conditions that will meet the needs of families most in need,” he said.

At the same time, Ramsamooj said Jamaican voters will need to demonstrate in this parliamentary election if they want to maintain the ‘garrison phenomenon’ in the constituencies or look at leadership where representation is of paramount importance.

Meanwhile, he said the refusal of the PNP leadership to engage the JLP in a national debate could have consequences for the ruling party, as the uncommitted should be given the opportunity to decide if Simpson Miller should be given another term as prime minister in accounting for her stewardship, or allow them to make up their minds if the JLP will provide the leadership that allows a better quality of life for families across Jamaica.

He pointed out that the former Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissesar refused to debate her rival Keith Rowley and paid for the consequences.

Persad-Bissessar, he said, appeared on a television programme with journalists, similar to what was being planned by the RJR Group, but noted that such a forum is a question and answer session and cannot be compared to a debate.