With the greatest of respect, Minister Peter Bunting, if the requisite legislation is successfully codified into law, please accept the UK prison transfer deal, but only if the remaining sentences do not exceed five (5) years. This advice is based on the following premise, facts, and realities (based on published estimates).

The fact is, the construction of a new prison is inevitable and will cost approximately the same whether or not the Government of Jamaica had to countenance the 300 prisoners from the UK. The reality we, Jamaicans, must face is the estimated construction costs estimated at $11.4 billion, and the fact that we must build a prison with the future in mind. It would make no sense, whatsoever, to build a smaller prison, so the estimated cost to build it remains our reality regardless of the UK’s offer.

Based on the fact that Jamaica would have to build a new prison whether or not Jamaica received the £30.5 million (£25 million plus £5.5 million) from the UK, in my opinion, it makes no difference, whatsoever, if we commingled both amounts and deem it to be the full amount being paid by the UK for maintenance of the 300 UK prisoners.

Those are the existing facts and realities which compel the way I have calculated and analysed the basis for this recommendation, as follows:

(a) It has been published that the estimated annual cost to maintain a prisoner in Jamaica is $1.6 million. That means when we do the simple math, the 300 UK prisoners (who will be prematurely deported here to complete their prison terms for crimes they did not commit in Jamaica) will cost Jamaica an estimated $480 million annually.

(b) It has been published that the UK only offered Jamaica £5.5 million ($1.001 billion) for maintenance of the 300 prisoners. When we consider that $480 million (the annual cost to maintain the 300 prisoners) only goes into $1.001 billion a mere two times (rounded), that means by the third year into the Prison Transfer Agreement, Jamaica must pay the full $480 million annually to maintain the UK’s 300 prisoners. However, we would receive more than £5.5 million from the UK, so we need to take that into consideration.

(c) It has also been published that the UK proposed a grant to Jamaica, in the amount of £25 million ($4.6 billion) to help build a new prison.

(d) We know that $480 million goes into $4.6 billion a mere 9.48 times (rounded).

(e) We also know that at present value, the UK is offering to pay for approximately 11.57 years (2.09 + 9.48) of maintenance for the 300 UK prisoners.

(f) We do not know definitively what each prisoner’s remaining sentences will be when the UK prematurely deport them on us.

(g) We do not know what the annual inflation adjusted cost to maintain each prisoner will be in 11.57 years from the date (or dates) the prisoners are prematurely deported to Jamaica?

Therefore, based on the foregoing estimates and facts, and given the Government of Jamaica’s tight fiscal space under the current IMF agreement, it appears prudent to accept the deal, provided that the remaining prison sentences do not exceed five years. The remaining years (6.57), as projected above, would be Jamaica’s cushion to hedge against inflation and any future currency devaluation.

Trevor H Francis is a chartered accountant, certified public accountant, and founder of RCFJ Forum. Send comments to the Observer or trevor@fiacg.com.