Vision 2030, political manifestos and the future of Jamaica
Jamaica is at least two years behind on the plans outlined in Vision 2030.
Political manifestos filled with promises, some of which are empty or even fiscally irresponsible, are presented at each election. They are important because they are supposed to give a sense of the priorities of each political party and their vision for Jamaica.
Thankfully, Jamaica also has a non-partisan set of documents that can be used as the yardstick to measure manifestos and past performance — Vision 2030 Jamaica and the Medium Term Socio-Economic Policy Framework 2009-2012 (MTF).
Few Jamaicans have ever read either of these and fewer still have even heard of the MTF, the “companion document to Vision 2030 Jamaica – National Development Plan published by the Planning Institute of Jamaica in 2009 as the prioritised action plan for the first three years of the Vision 2030 plan. It is the frame of reference for implementing the plan, and the means by which we align more effectively, our programmes and activities to the national budget.
In short, it explains how to move from words to actions. It outlines some key historical points to better understand where the country is coming from: access to piped water amongst households increased to 70.2 per cent in 2007 from 66.6 per cent in 2000, the proportion of the population living below the poverty line moved to one in 10 in 2007 from one in four in 1990 (it has gone backwards since 2007), health indicators had improved and Jamaica’s rank in transparent and good governance had slipped from 57th in 2003 to 84th out of 132 countries in 2007.
The ‘Where We Are Now’ section includes the following: Jamaica had one of the highest murder rates in the world in 2008; high public debt; low productivity in most sectors; fiscal imbalance; anaemic export performance; weak infrastructure; poor educational performance, particularly among boys; unemployment among youth (ages 15-24 years) as high as 23.6 per cent; weak institutions; inadequate transparency and accountability in governance; and a high perception of corruption permeating public and private sectors.” Obviously these are things that need to be addressed and fixed over time.
What was the implementation plan for 2009-2012?
With resource constraints, Jamaica understandably has to choose a subset of strategies to implement and this first MTF focused on six national outcomes: Security and safety, A stable macroeconomy, Strong economic infrastructure, Energy security and efficiency, World-class education and training, and Effective governance.
For security, the Government was supposed to “empower communities to become independent of the criminal gang networks and participate fully in mainstream society” ie reduce garrison communities. The law enforcement system was to be modernised and reformed, improve border security, increase the quantity and quality of the equipment available to law enforcement and improve the rehabilitation and integration of convicts (more than 20 per cent of convicts are repeat offenders in Jamaica).
Jamaicans who have been paying attention to the country can attest to what has and has not been implemented between 2009 and now, with only one year left to go in the implementation plan.
Under Stable Macroeconomy the plans include ensuring fiscal and debt sustainability, developing an efficient and equitable tax system, maintaining price stability and maintaining financial stability. Thankfully, some of these have been implemented; financial stability and price stability can be seen.
The debt of the country, notwithstanding the hyped JDX, has grown enormously and still remains unsustainable. However, some public entities are no longer on the books to continue adding to the unsustainable debt. Nothing has happened with tax reform except to raise taxes on PAYE individuals and increase the cost of energy for businesses.
Under Strong Economic Infrastructure, seven national strategies were to be implemented, including developing a modernised public transport system, expand and rationalise land transport infrastructure, expand domestic and international air transport infrastructure and services, expand and diversify maritime infrastructure and services, develop Jamaica as a regional logistics hub with multimodal transport linkages, expand the broadband network islandwide and ensure safe water supply and sanitation services.
Jamaica has additional airlift from new countries, the JLP are privatising the operations of the Norman Manley International Airport based on the way the PNP did the same for Sangster International, the JLP executed the Falmouth Cruise Ship Pier that was conceived under the PNP, thus adding to maritime infrastructure (although some people have issues with this project), the railway is now up and running again, providing cheaper transport for tens of thousands of customers on a daily basis, the port in Kingston has been expanded but will be sold off even though it is profitable, and broadband is being built out across the island thanks to the Universal Access Fund and the telecom companies that won contracts. JDIP has been rehabilitating roads across the island.
While economic infrastructure had significant implementation, the same cannot be said for Energy Security and Efficiency. There were only two goals to accomplish in three years, the fewest goals of any sector, and neither has been achieved or is close.
Diversifying the energy supply and promoting energy efficiency and conservation were the goals. LNG became a fiasco the first time around and we can only hope that the second time is better, but that is years away, if ever. Yes, some hydroelectric plants have been refurbished by JPS but Jamaica has not diversified the energy supply.
The PNP can point to Wigton Wind Farm but the JLP have nothing to show for diversification. In fact, the minister of finance tried to put taxes on solar panels and it was a televised address by the prime minister at the time that eliminated that.
One could argue that putting GCT on electricity promotes conservation, but we all know that it was a revenue-raising tactic having nothing to do with promoting efficiency or conservation. Our politicians are so concerned with energy conservation that we are allowing older, less fuel-efficient vehicles into the country and lowered the duty to be paid on SUVs (“promote greater vehicle fuel efficiency” was actually a key action believe it or not).
Possibly the only priority that has seen as little implementation as Energy is Effective Governance. Key actions included modernising the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions, implementing a case management system to be replicated across all courts, developing a mechanism to clear the backlog of cases in the justice system in three years, rationalising public sector agencies to eliminate duplication, creation of new regional authorities and more autonomy for schools (to be done by Ministry of Education) as well as creating frameworks to ensure that public information is accurate and accessible to all citizens.
The three risks listed as to why these may not be done were “increasing crime rate, lack of political will, availability of resources” and the crime rate went down so only two reasons are left and it seems that Jamaican politicians have a serious lack of political will to get certain things done.
The manifestos of the political parties are not nearly as detailed as Vision 2030 Jamaica or the Medium Term Socio-Economic Framework 2009-2012. These are the documents that we should be using to judge the performance and future plans of any political party in Jamaica.
Either Vision 2030 is a serious plan that is supported and followed or it is just for show — another nice plan to be shelved. Jamaica has done extremely poorly in implementing the first years of Vision 2030.
Can we catch up? Yes, but only if the respective political parties agree to actually implement the key actions and strategies, make themselves accountable for each and execute the monitoring system that was called for, namely Vision 2030 Jamaica Annual Progress Reports and annual sectoral reports.
I close by updating the ‘Where Are We Now’ section I quoted from the MTF earlier so that we can all take stock of what has transpired during the first two years of implementation: “Jamaica had one of the highest murder rates in the world in 2008 and has dramatically cut that rate; public debt is still high; low productivity in most sectors continues; fiscal imbalance has been reduced; anaemic export performance continues; weak infrastructure but improvements have been made; poor educational performance, particularly among boys, continues; unemployment among youth (ages 15-24 years) is still high; weak institutions continue; inadequate transparency and accountability in governance; and a high perception of corruption permeating public and private sectors with little done to stem corruption or improve transparency.”
Let us hope that at the end of 2012 we can have more positive updates to the ‘Where Are We Now’ section for the Medium Term Socio-Economic Framework 2013-2016.
David Mullings was the first Future Leaders representative for the USA on the Jamaican Diaspora Advisory Board. He can be found on Twitter at twitter.com/davidmullings and Facebook at facebook.com/InteractiveDialogue