Towards a politics of inclusion
IN a remarkably uncelebratory speech accepting the mandate from the electorate after the September 2007 general election, then Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader Bruce Golding said, “It may very well be that the people of Jamaica, in their own profound wisdom, are sending a clear message that the time has come for constructive engagement among the political forces of the country.”
“…Under my leadership and under a government that I would lead, we would seek to establish a new framework that would seek to establish an inclusiveness in the relationship between the Government and the Opposition,” he promised.
Alas, that ‘new framework’ did not materialise although Mr Golding delivered on a few promises, including allowing the Opposition to chair some important parliamentary committees although, in the end, they limited influence over the ‘awesome power’ of the executive branch of Government. But it was a start.
Ironically, “inclusiveness” is needed now more than ever because the economic crisis demands not only co-operation between Government and Opposition but among all major stakeholders in society because the solution will require some degree of shared sacrifice.
I went back to Mr Golding’s reflections on his razor-thin majority (32-28) after reading the latest RJR Group/Boxill polls showing that the JLP has moved just ahead of the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) though they were in a statistical dead heat as the lead was within the poll’s margin of error.
The numbers suggest another close contest unless one party can find something new to blow away the other and secure a wide margin of victory and a comfortable majority in the House.
In the 2007 contest, the country was evenly divided as only 2,940 votes separated the parties: The JLP got 405,215 votes to the PNP’s 402,275, thus a margin of less than one per cent, one of the smallest in our history.
Now, according to the RJR Group/Boxill poll, the JLP has pushed ahead of the PNP for the first time in several years with 35.2 per cent support to 32.7 per cent for the PNP.
The poll was conducted during October 28-November 3, 2011, based on a nationally representative islandwide sample of 1,000 persons 18 years and over and has a margin of error of + or – 4 per cent. Hence the lead of 2.5 per cent is within the margin of error. This poll only targeted persons who are enumerated.
The RJR Group/Boxill poll was the first national sampling since Mr Holness assumed the prime ministership and consequently attracted considerable political and media attention.
The previous Don Anderson/CVM and Bill Johnson/Gleaner polls between September 30 and October 2 were done after Mr Golding had announced he would be resigning as party leader and prime minister but before Mr Holness had been endorsed by his rivals on October 7, subsequently becoming prime minister on Sunday, October 23.
The Anderson-CVM poll found that 39 per cent would vote PNP under Mrs Simpson Miller and 35 per cent would vote the JLP if Mr Holness was the leader. This four-point margin compares to July 2011 when the lead was 23 points.
Also, the Johnson-Gleaner poll found that 44 per cent of Jamaicans would select the PNP president as prime minister while 40 per cent would choose the JLP leader-designate.
The previous Gleaner-commissioned poll in May and June of this year reported that 42 per cent of Jamaicans said Mrs Simpson Miller would do a better job as prime minister while 31 per cent of the respondents favoured Mr Golding; hence Mr Holness has cut an 11 per cent lead to just four.
These polls presaged the Boxill poll and show that the JLP was right to jettison Mr Golding who had been mortally wounded by the scandal over his handling of the US request for the extradition of Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke, the reputed leader of the deadly Shower Posse who is to be sentenced in a New York Court December 8.
Assuming all the pollsters had a correct reading of public opinion when they did their sampling, it is clear that the governing party has been able to make up a lot of ground now that it has been freed of the Golding albatross that would — in all probability — have sunk them to electoral defeat. Momentum is on the side of the JLP.
Second, the RJR Group/Boxill poll suggests that Mr Holness may have added his own personal bump to solidify the resurgence of JLP core support.
Peter Phillips, the PNP’s campaign director, called it an expected “curiosity bounce” from the hype surrounding Mr Holness’s elevation to the top job, suggesting it will be short-lived. Some of this might be attributed to the tremendous media attention, mostly favourable, given to a new, young leader.
But Karl Samuda, the JLP campaign director, characterised the gain as “the appetiser”, asserting that the lead will widen when the campaign moves into another gear after the JLP’s conference of November 20, which will formally anoint Holness as party leader,
Third, the numbers from the RJR Group/Boxill polls show the PNP hovering around 33-36 per cent. This is likely to be core supporters who will not waver and Phillips believed the party will be able to build on this as the campaign intensifies.
Going forward from a position of a statistical dead heat, there are some things that both campaigns are expected to do.
First, they will seek to retain the base by concentrating organisational and financial resources at ground level on constituencies they consider vital to winning.
Here, the JLP leadership must be concerned that (up to Thursday) they were contemplating dropping at least three sitting MPs where internal polls showed them trailing their PNP challengers. Dr St Aubyn Bartlett (East St Andrew), Tarn Peralto (South East St Mary) and Gregory Mair (North East St Catherine) all seemed set to be dropped.
Second, they will have to devise and implement strategies to win over a majority of the 12 per cent or so of the electorate who indicate they will vote but who have not yet made up their minds. These are mostly independents.
One of the key issues for these voters and, indeed, the entire country, is the management of the debt crisis.
By some accounts, Jamaica’s debt at the end of August was over $1.6 trillion. This is unsustainable, even with last year’s Jamaica Debt Exchange, which gave the Government some breathing room.
As the Gleaner said in an editorial Thursday, “we do nothing, the economy will collapse. So, spending has to be brought closer in line with income, even as the Government increases its revenue”.
Among other things, this will require public sector reform, including limiting the size of the wage bill, changes in the funding of civil service pension so that employees contribute to their future benefit, tax reform so that the burden is distributed equitably and waivers of all kinds are curtailed.
All of these issues will require the “constructive engagement” Mr Golding promised in 2007. A pre-requisite is that the political parties must tell the country the truth about the crisis and offer realistic proposals to tackle it. It is not enough to ask for a mandate, and unrealistic promises must be rejected.
The polls may very well be telling us that the lopsided victories of the 1970s and 1980s when electoral skulduggery was possible are over. The message in slim margins may be that the people want their political representatives to work together once the election is over. It is a lesson worth remembering.
kcr@cwjamaica.com