NEW YORK, United States – SOME major investment banks are still betting that oil prices will grow next year despite an emergency injection of crude on world markets from the US and other countries.

Benchmark crude climbed as high as US$97.48 per barrel yesterday after Barclays Capital raised its 2012 price forecast for Brent crude, used to price many international types of oil. And Goldman Sachs said the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) decision at the end of June to release 60 million barrels of oil from its reserves won’t cool off prices as much as originally thought.

Independent oil analysts say prices still could head lower this year. But some think IEA’s announcement speaks volumes about its expectations for world oil supplies.

“I think it’s an admission from them that Saudi Arabia might not be able to produce enough oil on its own” to meet increased world demand, analyst Stephen Schork said.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude yesterday gained US$1.95, or two per cent, to settle at US$96.89 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude added US$2.22 to settle at US$113.61 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Barclays increased its 2012 forecast for Brent crude by US$10 to US$115 per barrel yesterday, saying prices will rise as global oil demand increases. Barclays sees China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil as the main sources for demand growth. Barclays actually lowered its expectations for benchmark WTI oil, but its forecast for an average price of US$100 per barrel suggests prices are still headed higher this year.

Barclays higher outlook for Brent was enough to send all petroleum commodities higher, analyst Jim Ritterbusch said.

The bottom line, Ritterbusch said, is that refineries in Europe will continue to struggle to replace Libyan oil that was cut off when an anti-government uprising that began earlier this year. “They’re continuing to suffer the loss of those supplies, and that’s affecting everything,” he said.

Goldman Sachs also pointed out late last week that the IEA will actually release only about two-thirds of the oil it said it would. Goldman analyst David Greely said about a third of the 60-million barrel total will come from limiting the amount that countries are required to keep in emergency supplies.

Since the oil industry tends to keep much more on hand than what’s required, Greely said that the new limits will have an “almost negligible impact on oil prices.”