Beyond Libya, oil market warily eyes Saudi Arabia
NEW YORK, United States — Oil Prices retreated yesterday as OPEC ministers discussed whether to ramp up oil production in the wake of the Libyan uprising.
Benchmark oil for April delivery fell 42 cents to settle at US$105.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude fell US$1.98 to settle at US$113.06 per barrel.
The Libyan crisis has forced companies to evacuate workers, and most of the country’s 1.6 million barrels of daily production has been shut down. Boosting production elsewhere would likely cool off overheated energy prices, but experts warn that doing so would weaken OPEC’s ability to manage global supplies later this year.
Beyond the crisis in Libya, what’s making energy markets nervous — and driving up oil prices — is concern about Saudi Arabia.
The world’s largest oil exporter is dealing with protests at home, although smaller in scale than those in nearby countries. Larger demonstrations in neighboring Bahrain have oil traders fearing the unrest could spill across the border.
With the entire region in upheaval, it would be a mistake to think the Saudis have shielded themselves from the anger that ousted leaders in Egypt and Tunisia, Barclays analyst Helima Croft said. The string of rebellions in North Africa and the Middle East took the world by surprise, forcing a fundamental realignment of the region’s political power.
“You could say, they’re rich, (King) Abdulla’s popular, no problem,” Croft said. But anything is possible. “If anyone had asked us in January whether (Egypt’s) Hosni Mubarak would be gone, most of us would have said ‘absolutely not.”‘
More than 17,000 Saudis have signed up on a Facebook page calling for a “Day of Rage” on Friday, according to Barclays Capital. That’s despite King Abdulla’s recent announcement of a US$36 billion program for employment, housing and education.
Saudi Arabia has also increased production to make up for a drop in Libyan exports caused by the uprising in the smaller OPEC nation. Doing so, however, will cut into the country’s surplus supply for months. Investment banks said Tuesday the move will put enough pressure on world supplies to keep oil prices at elevated levels this spring.
Oil prices have jumped about US$20 per barrel since mid-February when the Libyan uprising escalated.
Experts agree that a resolution to that crisis won’t necessarily stop oil prices from heading higher.
Analyst and oil trader Stephen Schork said the market is waiting for a sign that the entire region is headed toward a peaceful outcome that will keep crude exports flowing. “That’s months away,” he said.
Boosting production now might cool off overheated energy prices, but experts warn OPEC could weaken its ability to manage global supplies later this year.
Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, said the main concern in the oil market is whether the governments of Saudi Arabia and Iran — OPEC’s No 2 producer — will be dramatically affected by the wave of pro-reform uprisings.