In the early months of 1980, especially from July (when Kingston street violence saw marked increases) right on to the massive election loss for his party in October of that year, the pressures of leadership slipping away from him could be seen printed on the face of Michael Manley, prime minister from February 1972 to October 1980.

In October 2010 it is Bruce Golding’s time — only that he had no halcyon years like Manley at the start of his run when Jamaicans stood by him from 1972 to, at the very least, 1976. Manley’s breathing space, given to him by a people who were seemingly moving in sync with his every utterance and leadership initiative, even allowed him room for his dangerous and naively foolish political experimentation with “democratic socialism” which he announced as the way forward in 1974.

In Golding’s case, there was no love hangover for him like the type that enveloped Manley on his return to power in February 1989. A significant percentage of older Labourites who voted for the JLP in 2007 did so only because of the long 18 1/2 year political drought. To them Golding was the man who brought about the first ever third-term win (by the PNP in 1997) by his flirtation with the NDM.

It is my belief that even if Golding had sucked up to the autocratic leadership demands of Eddie Seaga and had not broken away from the JLP and formed the NDM in 1995, the PNP would still have won the 1997 general election, courtesy of the presence of Seaga.

In 2007, as Golding edged out the PNP, it was totally up to him to sell the broad plan he had articulated so well, especially in his debate with PNP leader Portia Simpson Miller. The few of us who had seen Bruce Golding falling asleep at the helm of the NDM in 1996 decided that we would dig deep in our pockets of hope in 2007 and supported it with thoughts like, “He can’t do any worse than Portia.”

In three short years he has painted himself into an impossible corner and, from his own admission, he should have shut down the engagement of Manatt, Phelps and Phillips from the earliest stages. It seems to be an easy call that it was not so much a failure of judgement on his part as it was an abuse and failure of leadership. One does not hand out bottles of kerosene and boxes of matches then say “sorry” when the house is burnt flat.

Recently when he announced — to widespread satisfaction — that an official enquiry would be held into matters having to do with the extradition of Dudus and the engagement of MPP, he promised that the Opposition PNP would be consulted, presumably on the terms of reference and the composition of the team.

In a section of the Observer article by Alicia Dunkley yesterday, “Dudus’ enquirers named”, the following is stated, “But Golding said that while a commitment had been given to consult on the names and terms of reference, communication was not possible before yesterday morning as the membership was (sic) only just arrived at the very same morning.”

I confess that that has me totally confused. In other words, the prime minister, having promised that there would be consultations with the Opposition prior to the official announcement of the enquiry, found that he could not consult with the PNP because the enquiry membership was arrived at before he had a chance to consult with the PNP. Or something foolish like that.

Can’t the prime minister get anything right? In this particular enquiry, like none before, it has been the Opposition which has literally dug the information out of the government. For that reason the PM should have lived up to his word, even if his word, at this late stage, can still be taken as firm indication of a promised action.

The prime minister is obviously under severe stress and even though the job of being prime minister is an extremely stressful one, many are sensing that Golding wants out. Of course, the matter is not all that simple. As a political party the JLP relies on the power it holds for everything else which flows; that is, its own survival, its continued relevance to the nation, and yes, somewhere in there is that matter of the people’s business – the nation’s business.

If key party people believe that a resignation from Golding in, say, the middle of next year, will severely hurt the party’s chance more than it already has, the prime minister may find that he will have to “toe the line” and remain on autopilot much longer than he wants or is comfortable with.

It is useful to remember that he “ascended to the throne” as an unwilling leader. At seemingly every important step of his recent political life, he has been prodded and impelled by those who needed him to do what they were incapable of doing. Now that he has had it and obviously wants to just go home and smell the coffee again, he is forced to announce an enquiry which many believe will trigger a heavy downpour on his fast dispersing parade.

It is quite painful to know that a PNP, eagerly salivating at the thought of retaking power after just one term of the JLP, has not signalled to us that it has any newer understanding of its responsibilities in a world landscape where countries like Jamaica are always subject to the motions of global capital while our mass of unemployed will be looking for it (the PNP) to do what the present administration has failed to do.

We have attached ourselves to the Chinese quite probably because we have no other options. As Michael Manley found out in the Cold War days of the 1970s, global capital follows what was deemed politically correct. In the 21st century and with a world having many subsets of political alignments, but with the Eastern giant rising, it will be the bang that a country can get for its buck that will define these new alignments.

The cry of jobs, jobs, jobs will also come back to haunt the PNP as it retakes power in 2012 or late next year. It is not so much that the Golding administration could not provide the promised jobs, jobs, jobs that made significant numbers of people turn away from it, but more so how Golding and his team failed to articulate the realities when they had the chance in 2008.

Already wounded by those failures of leadership, the deliberate delays in the Dudus extradition and the Manatt fiasco tended only to confirm in many people’s minds that “dem no ready”.

If in six months time, the Commission of Enquiry issues a report which is highly unfavourable to the ruling JLP, I cannot see Prime Minister Golding continuing much longer. But what about a favourable report?

Well, I once read Alice in Wonderland but that was a long time ago.

observemark@gmail.com