NEARLY a quarter of voting age Jamaicans do not believe that any of the country’s political leaders either understand or know how to solve the island’s problems.

But of the leaders who get rating, Edward Seaga, the leader of the Jamaica Labour Party, with the backing of 25.7 per cent of the country’s adults, comes out just ahead of Prime Minister P J Patterson (22.2 per cent) as the leader with the best handle on the issues facing the country.

Significantly, though, the late Michael Manley, whose reign in the ideologically divisive 1970s is often derided as the nadir of Jamaica’s economic development, is rated as the leader who has done most to take Jamaica forward since the country’s independence in 1962.

With approximately 38 per cent of the sample in a survey done for the Observer by the Stone polling organisation rating Manley as the best performing leader in the past 40 years, he has more than twice the support of either of the current major political figures, Seaga (17 per cent) and Patterson (14.1 per cent).

Michael Manley’s father, the pre-independence leader Norman Manley and his contemporary and rival, Sir Alexander Bustamante, are in a dead heat at two-and-half per cent each, as the leaders who had done most for the country. Bustamante was the first prime minister of independent Jamaica.

Norman Manley and Bustamante, both of whom are dead, were named national heroes.

Stone conducted this survey on June 29 and 30, using a sample of 1,202 persons, aged 18 and over in 40 communities across Jamaica. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

When Stone asked people which current leader they thought had a grasp of, and solutions to, Jamaica’s problems, 23 per cent none of them and another 24.2 per cent said they did know.

The 3.5 percentage point gap between Seaga and Patterson, is just outside the poll’s margin of error.

As other findings from the survey are collated and published, it will become clearer whether the Opposition leader’s support over Patterson, though relatively narrow, is significant in the context of general election to be held here later this year.

Surprisingly, Portia Simpson Miller, the tourism minister who often emerges as the country’s most popular politician and the people’s choice to lead the ruling People’s National Party (PNP), was backed by only 2.3 per cent as the leader best able to handle the country’s problem. Antonette Haughton-Cardenas was supported by 1.3 per cent while Peter Phillips, the security minister, had the support of half of one per cent.

Seaga apart, no other JLP politician showed up as a leader who people felt understood or could deal with Jamaica’s problems.

Of leaders who have done most to take Jamaica forward since independence, Jamaicans clearly embrace Michael Manley, the charismatic and articulate and controversial leader who emerged in the 1970s as a major spokesman for the third world. But at home he angered many people as well as gained the ire of the United States for promoting democratic socialism and creating a friendship with Cuba.

The Manley legacy is still often debated, but Stone pointed out that only 32 per cent of their sample were aged 10 or over when Manley first came to office in 1972. About a quarter of the population was over 10 at the time of independence.

Question

Which of the leaders of this country do you think has the best understanding of Jamaica’s problems and knows how to solve them?

Stone comment:

In the July 2002 poll, leader of the Opposition leader Edward Seaga who has been in politics in excess of 40 years tops the list of those leaders thought to have the most hands-on knowledge of Jamaica’s problems and the solutions to those problems.

Second on the list is Prime Minister P J Patterson who is just 3.5 percentage points behind the leader of the Opposition, while tourism minister Portia Simpson Miller scores surprisingly low on this question.

Antonette Haughton is thought by 1.3 per cent to have the best understanding of Jamaica’s problems. A significant 23 per cent were of the view that none of the present crop of leaders has any understanding of Jamaica’s problems and the solutions to them.

Question:

Which political leader since independence has done most to move Jamaica forward?

Stone comment:

While just over 24 per cent of our sample were 10 years and over in 1962 when we gained our independence, only 30 per cent were 10 and over in 1972 when Michael Manley, the political leader who tops the list, was elected prime minister.

The younger Manley tops the list of leaders who respondents say have done most to move the country forward. He scores just under 38 per cent. Opposition leader Edward Seaga is second on the list at 17 per cent, followed closely by Prime Minister Patterson at 14.1 per cent.

Don’t know 24.2%Answers:

Edward Seaga 25.7%

Portia Simpson 2.3%

Peter Phillips 0.5%

Others 0.7%

Bruce Golding 0.1%Antonette Haughton 1.3%P J Patterson 22.2%None of them 23.0 %Others 0.2%Hugh Shearer 0.5%Bustamante 2.5%P J Patterson 14.1%Michael Manley 37.9%Answers:

Edward Seaga 17.0%

None of them 5.8%

Norman Manley 2.4%

Donald Sangster 0.2%